WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect, snow in the forecast

Friday, January 31, 2020

A snow shower from Shoreline's past.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory which is in effect until 7am Saturday morning. Strong winds are expected, with gusts as high as 45mph overnight into Saturday morning. Local power outages are possible, unsecured objects could be blown around, falling small tree branches possible.

The strongest winds have probably ended but it is still expected to be gusty during most of the overnight hours into Saturday morning.

We are expecting a lot of rain Saturday, with big changes occurring late Saturday night. Snow levels drop, at first to about 500 feet, which is above most areas in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park area. So late Saturday evening we could start seeing snow mixing in with rain showers.

By Sunday morning the snow level is down to 300 feet, with a chance of snow, turning over to rain during the afternoon hours. Sunday night back down to snow and rain mix, or snow after midnight, with the snow level near 300 feet once again.

Monday, mostly cloudy but dry, highs around the low 40's and lows down into the 30's.

Tuesday our next storm approaches, starting as snow early in the morning with breezy winds. We warm up quickly to the mid 40's Tuesday afternoon, when everyone should be back to 100% rain. Rain is expected to continue Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures, highs near 50°F and lows in the mid to upper 40's.

Bottom line: This current threat of snow is not a major event. It is very marginal, warmer than the January events. Any snow that accumulates will likely quickly melt away during the afternoon hours.

There is one wild card in this mix, a Puget Sound Convergence zone is expected Saturday night, but where it will be is very uncertain. The convergence zone is probably the only weather feature that is likely to generate accumulating snowfall in the area. The zone could produce possibly 1-4 inches, but it is unknown where it will form and park. Some models have another Puget Sound Convergence zone Sunday evening as well. Both events could create a window of opportunity for accumulating snow.

Both Saturday evening and Sunday evening's events have been forecasted to be anywhere between Everett and Sea-Tac, but in a narrow west to east band about 3-10 miles wide.

I'll reiterate however, this snow threat is on the warm side, and most accumulating snow isn't going to last very long especially during the daylight hours.

Extended forecasts are pointing to a cooler pattern at the end of next week, and at this time more snow is in that forecast but it's a bit early to have any details figured out. Long range forecasts are pointing toward a bigger cold snap in the second half of February. The idea has been in the long range forecasts now for about two weeks but keep in mind, the farther out the forecast, the less accurate it is.

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