WeatherWatcher: The transition to above freezing

Monday, January 15, 2024

Patchy ice forming on Lake Washington at Log Boom Park
Photo by Gordon Snyder

Tuesday, or more specifically Tuesday night we will begin the transition back to the normal 40°F rainy, more typical winter weather. 

The storm track is switching back to a southwest pattern over our region and will begin to bring the Pacific storm train with the first one arriving Tuesday evening.

There is a lot of cold air in place, so much so that our first storm may start as snow, freezing rain or a mixture of both. The American forecast model says snow, but the European model says freezing rain or rain. Some uncertainty of course, but I suspect we will be closer to the freezing rain or just the normal rain side of the story.

According to the latest forecasts, precipitation is not expected to arrive until around 10-11pm Tuesday night. So thankfully this shouldn't be messing up any Tuesday evening commutes. 

Most models show a change to above freezing temperatures by Wednesday morning but some models show the freezing temperatures holding on until as late as Wednesday night. Depending on how this transition goes, it could make for a very messy Wednesday.

For the remainder of the week, we continue to hover around or just above freezing with rain showers expected, maybe some snow mixing in at times during overnight hours until Friday. 

Friday through next weekend we really warm up into the mid to upper 40's for highs. Once we reach Friday the threat of any freezing precipitation should be gone and remain gone generally for the remainder of January.

A more active weather pattern is expected through the end of the month with a series of cold fronts moving through, bringing rain at times, and we can't rule out a windstorm during this next period. 

As we get closer to the second week of February, some early indications point to a possible second cold outbreak, though probably not as cold or as long lasting as this one was.

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