WeatherWatcher: Flurries possible, then we warm up

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Dusting in Shoreline in 2010
Photo by Carl Dinse

There's been more talk of snow in the forecast for late Saturday evening and Sunday morning. This particular event is weak, offshore and is a bit too far south. In addition to the distant location of this weather system it also has a mild southwest flow off the Pacific ocean so it may warm the air up too quickly for anything but a couple of sprinkles.

There's a lot of cold and very dry air in place right now over the region. Most of the precipitation in this weather system will likely evaporate before it reaches the ground. At this time, for most areas north of Tacoma we are looking at a very slight chance of any precipitation. This means the chance of any rain or snow falling from the sky is very slim.

Bottom line: Our most likely scenario is just a dry, cloudy day with gradual warming by afternoon. In current forecast models there's a very slim chance that we will see some snow flakes falling from the sky Sunday morning. These forecasts often have a lot of uncertainty in them. There could be about a 0.05% chance of accumulating snow of about an inch. In the end though, this will be short lived in any case as we will get into the low-mid 40's by Sunday afternoon. Very small chances of rain remain in the forecast into Sunday evening.

Remainder of next week: We clear up again on Monday with sunny skies and high temperatures near 45°F, a clear Monday evening with lows dropping into the mid 30's. Tuesday clouds return with a slight chance of rain. For Tuesday evening through next Friday we maintain a chance of rain with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40's, and low temperatures in the mid-upper 30's.

November has been one of the driest Novembers on record. In Shoreline we average 6.63 inches of rain in November. This year we are at 1.34 inches of rain. We also averaged 1°F above average for the month, even with our current cold snap. There are some hints in longer range forecasts that we may start seeing a more typical, active weather pattern starting late next week or next weekend.

Daily average temperatures for November compared to 10 year average.
North Ridge/Echo Lake weather station.
Accumulated rainfall for November compared to 10 year average.
North Ridge/Echo Lake weather station.

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