WeatherWatcher: Forecast update, no snow Friday, watching Monday

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Updated February 2, 2017 10:46pm - Breaking news

Light snow has reached the surface in Shoreline and Lake Forest Park and will likely pick up a little in the next hour or two. There are two more bands of precipitation on the radar that, combined with the low dew points we have right now, can easily generate some accumulating snowfall after all.
Overnight, I'm expecting a dusting to two inches of snow to accumulate before we start warming up to rain. It appears this system is being more unpredictable than originally thought, so I'm going to say there is still great uncertainty in this forecast. There's a slight chance it may not warm up enough to transition to rain. In that scenario accumulations could be higher.


Now that we are closer to Friday, models have made up their minds just a little bit more. Snow is not as likely in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park area Friday morning. I was only giving it about a 20-30% chance, but now I'm giving it a less than 5% chance of accumulating snow Thursday night / Friday morning. The storm system moving in Friday is going to be pumping in just a little bit to much warm air.

There is a slight chance of some light snow Thursday night, or freezing rain before it warms up above freezing. There is a band on the doppler radar of snow moving from the south to north, currently reaching the Tacoma area as of 8:20pm.

Friday, expect rain most of the day before it changes to showers. We might see some wet flakes or a wintery mix early in the morning, but we're not expecting any accumulation. It will be chilly with highs in the low-mid 40's and lows in the 30's. Saturday is going to be a little break before the next system on Sunday. So for Saturday expect some rain showers, on Sunday expect a more steady rain for most of the day.

The system on Sunday appears at this time like it's going to stay off the coast and move just south enough to pull the arctic air in British Columbia down once again. There is a lot of cold air in the interior of British Columbia right now. It's very early in development but some models are starting to paint a snow day Monday. One even has snow on the ground through Thursday next week. It's a day I'm watching closely as others still think we should expect rain showers. The snow solutions are pointing at about 2-6 inches, but again it's been extremely uncertain.

Bottom line: Forecast is rainy, cool seasonable weather for the weekend, and snow is not likely until at least Monday. Monday is showing the potential to become a significant snow day, but the majority of models are still suggesting just rain showers right now. Stay tuned, I'll be posting an update on the developments for Monday's forecast.

Updated 02-02-2017 10:46pm


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