Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts

WeatherWatcher: Convergence Zone to strike again, frost, then summer

Saturday, April 10, 2021

Marginal snowfall in Shoreline.
Photo by Carl Dinse.


A Puget Sound Convergence zone is expected Saturday morning with temperatures cold enough that we could see some snow flakes, graupel or other wintery type mixes in the rain showers early in the morning. Don't be surprised if some of it sticks to lawns and other areas, but it'll be short lived. We should warm up towards Saturday afternoon with clearing skies.

Next, we have a freeze coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Clear skies will allow for widespread frost and temperatures into the upper 20's to low 30's. You may want to protect any of your frost sensitive plants Saturday evening.

Sunday through the end of next week a switch is flipped and we skip spring and go straight into summer. We are looking at sunny skies all week, with high temperatures near or into the low 70's, especially Wednesday through Friday. Low temperatures are still expected to be chilly, between the upper 30's and low 40's most nights.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory issued for Sunday, rain/snow possible Sunday night

Sunday, March 28, 2021

 

Windy day in Shoreline
Photo by Carl Dinse


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory for the greater Seattle area including Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The wind advisory is in effect from Sunday 12pm until 6pm.
  • What: Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph expected Sunday afternoon.
  • Where: Everett and vicinity, Tacoma area, Hood Canal area, Seattle and vicinity and Bremerton and vicinity.
  • When: From Noon to 6pm PDT Sunday.
  • Impacts: Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
We have a fairly strong storm system moving through the area Sunday. Aside from the gusty winds we are also expecting a quarter to a half inch of rain. 

Some isolated thunderstorms are possible as well in the mix of weather for Sunday. Behind the cold front is much colder air, expected to get cold enough for some rain and snow mix Sunday night into Monday morning.

Bottom line: Stormy day for Sunday with strong winds, rain, slight chance of a thunderstorm. Sunday night brings a slight chance of some snow and rain mixed, but no accumulations are expected.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Shoreline gets 11 inches of snow before slowly warming up

Monday, February 15, 2021

E Line Metro Bus stuck at N 185th and Aurora Ave N
Photo by Carl Dinse

Another February winter storm series to go into the history books. 

Between Friday evening and Saturday afternoon the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas recorded 9 inches of snowfall. Some of that snow drifted in the easterly winds during the storm, making snow accumulation measurements difficult. Saturday was our first day with a sub freezing high temperature since February 9, 2019.

Seems like déjà vu. This month two years ago we had a February arctic blast. In 2019 we had a total of 20 inches of snowfall in February over several storms. The bigger storms in 2019 occurred between February 8th and 12th, nearly the same time as this year.

Richmond Beach Saltwater Park February 13, 2021
Photo by Carl Dinse

On Sunday Shoreline recorded an additional 2 inches of snow accumulation before showers tapered off and temperatures warmed just slightly above freezing at about 1pm. 

The transition to warmer weather has started. This series of winter events is now ending with a total of 11 inches accumulated over the two days.

Picnic table at Shoreline Park February 13, 2021
Photo by Carl Dinse

Forecast: Rain is expected to arrive Monday afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low 40's. Some urban flooding is possible as a half inch of rain is expected to help melt off all this snow. We are going into a seasonable active rainy weather pattern for the week and into next weekend. 

Long range: There are still some hints that we could see a little bit of snow next weekend. Forecast models though haven't converged on a solid idea yet, and the amounts seem to be minimal compared to what we saw this weekend. We still may have a couple more opportunities of lowland snow events before we're done with this winter season.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Warning in effect until 4pm Saturday

Saturday, February 13, 2021

 
Snow accumulation has started, February 12, 2021
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle Friday morning upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the greater Seattle area, including Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. 

Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in the overnight hours into Saturday morning and through Saturday afternoon. Shoreline could pick up between 4-12 inches of snow. There are some forecast models that even suggest more snow than that, but 4-12 inches is most likely. 

Snowfall February 12, 2021
Photo by Carl Dinse
Breezy east winds are expected as well with gusts up to 25mph. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20's Saturday morning and are expected to top out in the low 30's during the day.

More snow from another storm is expected on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. 

A warm up is expected as well transitioning to rain into Monday morning, but timing is still uncertain. 

We could get an additional 2-4 inches of snow before we transition back to rainy weather.

Forecast next week: Rain is expected Monday, backing off to showers on Tuesday. Wednesday looks like a mostly dry day before another system moves in bringing more rain Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain is likely Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side with low snow levels. Lows will be in the 30's early in the week, and in the low 40's late in the week. 

High temperatures will be in the low 40's creeping up to the mid 40's later in the week. 

There has been a lot of uncertainty in temperatures for next week with the forecast models sometimes showing opportunities for a mix of rain and snow. I will continue to provide updates as things change.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Watch for Friday evening into Saturday morning, teaser Thursday night

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

 

Dusting of snow in Shoreline December 2009
Photo by Carl Dinse

A series of snow events is expected starting Thursday afternoon through the weekend. I'll start with Thursday afternoon. A weak low pressure system is expected to move in on the central Oregon coast on Thursday. This low pressure is far away, but close enough to send precipitation up to about the downtown Seattle area. Temperatures will be cold with the snow level at sea level so any precipitation is expected to fall as snow. 

Shoreline and Lake Forest Park are just far enough north to be outside of the expected wall of snow. We will likely have snow flurries, and some of those flurries may pick up enough to give us a dusting to about 2 inches, depending on how far north those snow showers reach. 

  • If you are traveling south of Seattle on Thursday or Friday morning, those folks are under a Winter Storm Warning for Thursday evening's snow event. They are expecting 3-6 inches of snow accumulations particularly south of SeaTac through southwest Washington.
Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the 20's. A chance of snow remains in the forecast through Friday morning and afternoon with high temperatures staying in the low to mid 30's.

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas including Shoreline and Lake Forest Park, in effect for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. From the National Weather service: heavy snow is possible with 3-8 inches of accumulation possible. A winter storm watch means severe winter conditions may affect our area, but location, timing and accumulations are still uncertain.

Forecast models are pretty much locked in on the idea that Friday evening through Saturday afternoon there will be a widespread snow event. Amounts are still varying; a lot of the forecast maps show between 12-20 inches of snowfall in the Shoreline area by Sunday morning. 
  • It is important to be aware that snowfall is not the same as snow accumulation on the ground. Accumulations will likely be less, but that still puts us in the range of 6-12 inches or more.
What does this mean for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park? At this time the best thing to do is be prepared for and anticipate winter weather this weekend. The forecasts will likely change as we get closer; there is a high level of uncertainty on accumulation amounts. Based on my experience I believe we will likely see close to 8-10 inches by Sunday morning. 

Longer Range: A slightly warmer storm off the Pacific ocean moves in Sunday afternoon for another round of snow to start. A transition over to rain is expected, but the timing of that is unknown right now. This Sunday storm could bring an additional accumulation before we thaw out. A warm up is expected Monday through Tuesday with rain at times, but then snow is expected back in the mix by Wednesday next week.

As always when arctic air is involved in our region the forecasts can change a lot from day to day. I am planning to just take this a couple of days at a time and provide updates here when we have changes.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Arctic Air, Snow possible this week

Sunday, February 7, 2021

 
Snow in Shoreline, January 2012
Photo by Carl Dinse.

We went from looking like a rare La Niña winter, escaping any major snow event, to a change in the forecast for this week. Sunday night into Monday morning colder air is moving in place with a convergence zone that could drop 1-2 inches of snow north of Seattle in a narrow east-west band. The accumulations are not expected to stick around on the roads very long, if at all.

North winds are expected to continue through the week, bringing us more and more arctic air through the Fraser river gap in British Columbia. Temperatures are expected to cool down, with daytime high of 40°F on Monday, dropping to the low to mid 30's through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the 20's, with Thursday morning possibly dropping into the upper teens. 

This will be the coldest air we've had in our region so far this winter. 

What about snow? There has been huge uncertainty in the forecasts, but as of this writing, we are looking at a slight chance of spotty snow showers or flurries through Wednesday evening. There isn't a lot expected in accumulations - possibly 1-2 inches by Wednesday - though any snow is unlikely to survive the daytime warmth over the next two or three days.

Thursday and Friday, however, it looks like we could have a significant widespread snow event move in. It's looking to be between 2-8 inches of snow. Some models show double that amount but again, this is highly uncertain. I'll be more comfortable giving a forecast as we get closer to mid-week.

Long range forecasts are hinting that the following week could be cold, with more opportunities to see some snow in the area. Keep a close eye on the weather forecasts this week, it could be a wild one.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Rainy week ahead

Sunday, January 31, 2021

 

Rainy day in Lake Forest Park.
Photo by Carl Dinse.


A relatively uneventful week is expected weather wise. Rain is expected for the majority of the time between now and Tuesday afternoon. We've received about a half inch of rain already over the weekend; we are expecting another half inch to one inch of rain between Sunday evening and Tuesday evening.

Tuesday evening the rain is expected to taper off into showers. Wednesday is expected to be our driest day during the week with only a slight chance of showers through the day and a dry and mostly cloudy Wednesday night. 

A chance of showers returns Thursday with steady rain increasing Thursday night, tapering off to showers Friday morning. High pressure then is expected to move through the area Friday through Saturday evening. The high pressure will bring us dry and mostly cloudy conditions. We could see partly sunny skies on Saturday.

Temperatures through the week are expected to run in the mid to upper 40's for a high and lows near 40, dipping into the upper 30's on some nights. A chance of rain returns Saturday night and Sunday.

Long range: There is nothing significant in the long range forecasts right now, though forecast models have been unusually bad this winter in the long range so anything could change over the next week or two. It is rare for us to get through a La Niña winter without a widespread snow event. Models right now show a jet stream bringing us normal Pacific rain storms from the west through February 8th or so, with a dry pattern beyond that.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Windstorm aftermath

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

 

Fallen tree in Shoreline on January 13, 2021
Photo by Patricia Hale


With short notice Tuesday night a wind advisory was issued at about 8:15pm by the National Weather Service in Seattle

On satellite imagery Tuesday evening the National Weather Service observed that a subtle and small center of low pressure off the west coast was intensifying and tracking in such a way to produce significant winds for the Puget Sound region. This storm was almost completely missed for strength and path in the forecast models prior with only hints that we'd have a breezy night.

Soon after the wind advisory was issued, winds started gusting to 30 mph at the Richmond Beach weather station. The power outages soon followed, with many fallen trees and tree limbs throughout the area. 

At the height of the storm, wind gusts in Edmonds and Richmond Beach peaked at 38 mph. Seattle saw between 45 and 58 mph. The airports where official records are kept, at Paine Field in south Everett and at Seatac, both reported a peak wind gust of 48mph.

In the video below from the Shoreline Fire Department, a tree had come into contact with some high voltage power lines. The high voltage then flowed through the tree to the ground. The electricity started boiling all the moisture inside the tree and causing the steam to whistle out through a crack or hole in the trunk, much like a tea kettle on a hot stove.


Winds overall were not super impressive; this is what I would call a moderate windstorm. Saturated soils and saturated trees made for weak tree limbs, trunks, and roots. It was a classic Pacific Northwest winter pattern, a series of storms lining up with first heavy rains for several days, and then moderate winds to cause the most tree damage.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect until 6AM Wednesday

 

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory in effect until 6AM Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to gust up to 40-50 mph in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas. The strongest winds are expected between Midnight and 3AM Wednesday morning.

Winds have already gusted up to 30 mph at the Richmond Beach Neighborhood weather station as of 9 pm Tuesday night. Some scattered local power outages are possible overnight into Wednesday morning with these winds. This is not expected to be a major wide spread damaging windstorm but I suspect it will be one of the stronger ones we've had so far this fall and winter season.

As Wednesday progresses winds should die down and so should the rain. The remainder of the week looks cool and showery with highs in the mid to upper 40's and lows in the low 40's to upper 30's. We could see some patchy fog in places Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday might be our next dry day before more rain moves in Saturday night.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory issued for Saturday, with flooding rains on the way

Saturday, January 2, 2021

GOES-West GeoColor 4 hour loop January 2nd, 2021 1:33am PST.
Courtesy of National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a high wind advisory for greater Seattle and vicinity, which includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. 

The Wind Advisory is in effect from 10am to 7pm Saturday. South winds are expected to pick up in the late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds are expected to be gusting up to 40mph, increasing to 45mph in the evening hours before slowly calming down after midnight.

Some local power outages are possible, as well as downed tree limbs.

This is not a major windstorm so I am not expecting widespread damages or power outages. A lot of rain is also expected with this storm. 1-3 inches of rain is possible, which would make this rival or exceed the rainfall amounts we had on December 21st.

Our biggest storm impacts Saturday will be urban flooding. Low lying roadways and parking lots will be most at risk for ponding or standing water. Most of the places that saw flooding on Monday, December 21st will likely see it again on Saturday evening. 

Keep those local storm drains clear of debris to help combat local flooding.

Unlike the December 21st's storm, we are not expecting any transitions to snow here in the lowlands. We have a short break in the rain Sunday afternoon, but beyond that rain is in the forecast all next week, with temperatures in the 40's. 

Through Tuesday we are expecting to see between two and a half to five and a half inches of rain so it is going to be a very wet week.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Solstice Storm

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

 

Washed out driveway in Innis Arden.
Photo courtesy City of Shoreline


The first day of winter sure brought us a day with almost all the kinds of weather we'd normally expect in winter. 

Winds in the morning gusting to 35mph, heavy rains, then accumulating snow. 

Seattle broke records, for warmest December 21st, most rainfall on December 21st, and all in the same day as recording measurable snowfall. This has happened a number of other times on other days in Sea-Tac's record history but by about 1-2 degrees cooler in difference. 

Flooded garden in Richmond Beach

The most recent weather pattern that matches this storm was on November 19-20, 2003. On the 2003 storm we had winds gusting to 35-45mph by 11pm, heavy rain overnight and it turned over to snow shortly after 5am. The snow was a quick 1-3 inches before melting off as well.

Back to 2020, in Shoreline we had a brief warmup to 54°F, with breezy southerly winds up to 30mph. 

When the cold front hit shortly before 1pm, winds abruptly switched to the northwest and we started seeing gusts up to 35mph. That's when the heavy rain started, and the temperature dropped down to 42°F within 30 minutes. 

The temperature continued a slow decline after that from 42°F all the way down to 33°F at 4:45pm.

Daily high and low temperatures in Shoreline, compared to eight year average in December 2020

Most rain gauges in the city, including my Richmond Beach station, recorded just over 2 inches of rain for the day. Some spots saw up to 2.4 inches of rain, other spots as little as 1.5 inches of rain. There were a lot of microbursts of rain embedded in this cold front that made for highly localized downpours.

Total rainfall and snowfall in Shoreline for December 2020

Snow begin mixing in with the rain at about 4:40pm or so before making the rapid transition to all snow at most spots above 100 feet in elevation. 

If you were close to Lake Washington or the Puget Sound it was too warm for any measurable accumulation in most spots. Everywhere a half mile or more from the water saw some accumulation. 

Places like North City and Aurora Avenue saw about 1" of wet slushy snow on the ground. It even accumulated on some of the side streets and in parts of the main roads for a short time.

1 inch of slushy snow accumulated on side streets.
This is looking across 15th Ave NE east towards NE 179th St
Photo by Brittany Ledyard

By around 7:30pm most of the snow had changed back over to rain as precipitation lightened up. Once the storm front passed through there were a couple of weak convergence zones but none got near Shoreline. 

We are now heading into a short dry period before we get more rain showers returning Christmas evening. 

Temperatures overnight into Wednesday morning and Thursday morning will reach freezing or dip below freezing, leaving ice and frost in places, including roadways.

There are now early indications that we may see more winter weather next week, something we need to keep a close eye on when we get towards the weekend.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Snow suddenly in Monday's forecast

Sunday, December 20, 2020

 

Marginal snow in Shoreline.
Photo by Carl Dinse


Overnight Saturday and throughout the day Sunday forecasts models started having a sudden shift in expected weather for Monday. It has become more certain that we will not only receive 1-3 inches of rainfall on Monday, but at least at some point snow flakes will mix in with all that rain by the afternoon or evening.

This storm is causing very uncertain forecasts and has potential to be a moderate to major snow event, but is likely to remain slushy with little to no impacts to roadways. 

The chance of this being anything but a slushy 1 inch of snow on the lawn is pretty low, but there is a chance. 

Several factors are at play, and worst case (or best case for snow lovers) scenario is a convergence zone developing and parking over Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

Bottom line: On Monday we are looking at a lot of rain as the center of the storm passes overhead. That rain could mix with or make a full transition to snow. Depending on how the storm tracks and interacts with the terrain, a Puget Sound convergence zone could form. 

Convergence zones are very tricky and can bring a surprise 2-11 inches of snow. 

The most likely scenario right now, though, is snow mixed with rain, possibly changing over to snow with maybe 1 inch of wet accumulation on lawns and other unpaved surfaces.

Any snow that does accumulate likely will not survive very long unless we somehow manage a massive snow dump. Tuesday through Thursday evening skies clear up for mostly sunny days and cold nights. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's and low temperatures down to the upper 20's or low 30's. 

Icy roads, especially on overpasses are possible in the overnight and morning hours from Tuesday through Thursday as well. Thursday evening is expected to start clouding up as our next storm approaches, with a chance of showers through Christmas day.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: 30 years ago in weather, December 18, 1990

Thursday, December 17, 2020

 

Eight inches of snow in Shoreline, February 16, 2001
Photo by Carl Dinse

Thursday, December 18, 1990, 30 years ago, marks the day of an historic cold snap associated with likely the strongest convergence zone recorded in our region.

The King/Snohomish County line was near the center of this convergence zone and got hit the hardest. It was the beginning of a two week school winter break that started early and resulted in our first White Christmas in decades. (Although Sea-Tac recorded one inch of snow on the ground Christmas 1983, which by definition counts.)

Around eight inches of snow accumulated around the lunch time hour within a 30 minute window when the storm first hit. After the initial burst of heavy snow, relatively lighter snow fell off and on throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Heavy snow had caused power outages by the late afternoon hours. 

We even had a rare thundersnow event around 4:15pm that night. North winds begin gusting up to 60mph shortly afterwards. Many school aged children were trapped at school, and people were stuck in gridlocked commutes home from work.

When the storm was over, we were in the single digits for lows and teens for high temperatures. Total snow accumulation on the ground was averaging between 12 and 14 inches in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park area. I have the temperature numbers from Sea-Tac below but I can only imagine it must have been several degrees colder here in Shoreline than it was at the airport.

  • 12-18-1990: High 36°F, Low 21°F
  • 12-19-1990: High 22°F, Low: 17°F
  • 12-20-1990: High 19°F, Low: 11°F
  • 12-21-1990: High 18°F, Low: 8°F

It slowly warmed up from there with the first thaw starting on Christmas day with a high temperature of 34°F. But then, on December 28th, a second wave of arctic air moved in dropping the low back down to 14°F, with a high of 21°F. Things started moderating on December 30th, with most of the snow gone in time for school to resume from winter break.

High and low temperature graph compared to average December 1990

If you have any photos from that storm you'd like to share, or from any other history snow or wind storms of Shoreline's past, please send them our way at either editor@shorelineareanews.com or carl.dinse@shorelineweather.com

For our current forecast in December 2020, much warmer weather is expected, with highs near 50°F and lows in the lower to mid 40's. We have more gusty winds on the way Friday evening, about the same as Thursday morning's winds which gusted to around 36 mph. The current forecast is calling for gusts as strong as 40mph, but this isn't by any means a major wind storm. I'm not expecting much tree damage or anything beyond a stray local power outage.

After the wind, some warmer rains are expected this weekend. Some local rivers could reach flood stage with the rise of snow levels. An atmospheric river is expected to bring a soaking mild rain from Saturday afternoon through Monday. After we get through the rain Monday it looks like things will dry out a bit starting on Tuesday and lasting as far as Thursday. 

Cooler temperatures are expected to arrive by Thursday too, but it's too early to tell if that means anything serious or not. Right now it doesn't look like anything more than chilly nights and some rain showers in the extended forecasts.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Rain returns, winter forecast

Monday, December 7, 2020

Rainy day over Richmond Beach and Puget Sound
Photo by Carl Dinse

Forecast: Rain returns Tuesday morning, and is expected to continue at times into the afternoon. More rain is likely Tuesday night as well. We're looking at a quarter to 3/4 of an inch of rain in total for Tuesday. 

The wet weather pattern is expected to continue through the weekend, with clouds and the threat of rain each day this week. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 40's for the highs and lows in the upper 30's to low 40's.

Winter Forecast: Several things are in play this year that are increasing our chances of a colder than normal winter, and wetter than normal winter. We have a moderate La Niña developing as well as a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to more of a negative phase.

In the near term I think we will start seeing the effects of the colder and wetter weather kick in around the second half of December. Some long range forecasts have been pointing at a significantly higher chance that we will see some lowland snow around the Christmas to New Years holidays. We normally have a very low chance of a white Christmas but those chances have increased this year.

January through March is when the bulk of the storms, rain, cold, and possible lowland snow are expected. For that time period our average temperature will likely be around 1-2°F lower than normal. Several atmospheric river events are expected as well.

December 8, 2020, marks 10 years since I started writing weather articles for Shoreline Area News. Here is a flashback to my very first weather report: WeatherWatcher: Thunderstorm. I started this in response to the November 23-25, 2010 snow and cold snap event to help provide better storm coverage for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Ponds froze over during that cold snap, and we had about 1-2 inches of snow accumulate and freeze on all the local streets.

Snow covers the newly completed N 195th St connector trail between Meridian Ave N and 1st Ave N in Shoreline on November 23, 2010
Photo by Carl Dinse



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Photogenic end to a Thanksgiving weekend

Monday, November 30, 2020

From a balcony in North City, overlooking the McAleer and Lyon creek watersheds towards Mt. Baker. You can see the shallow layers of fog in the valleys. Photo by Jon Ann Cruver

A rare break in late November weather gave way to a brilliant sunny day with a mix of patchy fog and high clouds in the area. Clear skies overnight Sunday morning produced some radiative cooling, an effect that often occurs during the longer clear nights between the fall and spring equinox. 

Infrared radiation from the surface radiates back out to space, causing the ground to cool down faster than the air above it. With relative humidity levels at near 100% as the ground cooled, a shallow layer of fog formed in lower elevation areas.

We were also between weather systems on Sunday, with our next rainmaker threatening to arrive sometime after midnight Monday morning. 

The approach of this storm front produced the high clouds, particularly the lenticular clouds north and east of the Olympic Mountains. You'll notice our sunset was rather red in the photos below, indicating the approaching storm front isn't far off.

Several of our readers sent in photos from across Shoreline from Puget Sound to North City. I'll start with the east side, from the North City neighborhood:

Sun filtered by fog on top of a ridge in North City.
Photo by Cynthia Sheridan

Then we transition over towards Richmond Beach and the Puget Sound where the fog was thinning. You can still see a hint of the fog very close to the water.

Puget Sound and Olympic Mountains with lenticular clouds from Innis Arden.
Photo by Jan Hansen

Finally we'll finish off the day with yet another spectacular sunset at Richmond Beach Saltwater Park. The park was full of visitors, many of them enjoying the view on walks around the park.

Photo by Lee Lageschulte

Those red skies I mentioned earlier, demonstrate one of the oldest meteorological rules of forecasting. Red skies at sunset or sunrise indicate an approaching or departing storm front. 

The old sailor's saying: "Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Red skies at night, sailors delight." In our case though, the red sky is the approaching storm this time, as it will hit overnight, not after sunrise.

Photo by Lee Lageschulte

Forecast for Monday is a stormy one, as we are expecting a round of rain to arrive overnight, with winds increasing as well. Gusts could get as strong as 40mph in the morning before easing a little in the afternoon to 20-30mph.

Once we get through the storm on Monday though, high pressure rebuilds and clears us up with patchy fog in the mornings, sunny afternoons, and clear and chilly nights. We could see patchy frost in places through the rest of the work week and into next weekend. 

Careful on those morning commutes if it takes you out on exposed side streets before sunrise.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory issued for Tuesday

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

 
August 29, 2015 wind storm aftermath, Shoreline near the NE 195th St I-5 pedestrian bridge
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory for the greater Seattle area, which includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The advisory is in effect Tuesday from 8am to 5pm. 
Wind Advisory is issued when the following conditions are expected:
  1. Sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph for an hour or more, and/or
  2. Wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph for any duration. 
High Wind Warning is issued when the following conditions are expected:
  1. Sustained winds of 40mph or higher for one hour or more, or
  2. Wind gusts of 58mph or higher for any duration.
A strong low pressure system is rapidly intensifying overnight into Tuesday morning, in what is described as a meteorological bomb by Cliff Mass

This storm is expected to make landfall in British Columbia near the northern tip of Vancouver island. This is actually sparing us from seeing the major winds this storm is producing closer to its center. 

We'll still be catching the tail end of the winds from this storm and even at that, it is expected to be significant enough to cause some local power outages. 

Winds are expected to increase starting overnight and early Tuesday morning. We are looking at southeast winds of 20 to 30mph with gusts to 40mph in the morning. In the afternoon hours winds are expected to increase to 25 to 35mph with gusts to 50mph.

Even 16 hours before this storm arrives, there is a great deal of uncertainty for wind speeds in our area.

Models still don't seem to agree at what time the peak will be. Some are pointing at 1pm and others are pointing at 7pm. This could be just a moderately breezy afternoon of 25mph winds or we could see those 50mph gusts that are in the advisory message.

Scattered or isolated power outages are possible. Winds of this strength usually bring down small tree limbs, occasionally one or two large tree limbs, or compromised trees.

I recommend securing any loose objects outside if you haven't already.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Friday the 13th windstorm that isn't, wet weekend ahead

Friday, November 13, 2020

Wind driven waves on Puget Sound waters from Richmond Beach
Photo by Carl Dinse

Earlier this week many forecast models were showing a very strong low pressure system develop and making landfall anywhere between Astoria, Oregon, and northern Vancouver Island on Friday. 

If this storm arrived anywhere in the northern 2/3rds of its uncertainty we would have had a pretty major windstorm coming in. Given the history our area seems to have with storms on Friday the 13th during storm season I was convinced it had to happen.

I didn't want to write a report on it just yet, given how extremely uncertain the computer forecast models were being. Even tonight, less than 24 hours away from this storm, forecasts have not been consistent.

Generally, it's much weaker than originally forecasted. In addition to the weaker low pressure system, it is looking more and more like it'll be tracking right over the top of us, instead of to our north. This means we are not looking at a lot of damaging wind, but it will be breezy. The storm is now expected to pass over us between the hours of 10am and 2pm on Friday.

This decreases the chance of strong winds, but increases the chance of a strong convergence zone in the afternoon and evening hours. In the morning I'm expecting breezy winds, most likely in the range of gusts 25-30mph. There could be a stray 35-40mph gust but it's not very likely. Once the convergence zone gets going, winds will likely calm down unless we end up north or south of the convergence line.

Temperatures are on the cool side, especially in the upper atmosphere. If the convergence zone gets going and strong, we could see some thunderstorms, hail, wintery mixes in with the moderate-heavy rain. 

Nothing shows any snow, but I think it's possible that we could see some wet snow mixed in, especially after the sun goes down Friday evening. I'm not expecting any accumulating snow. If we do see some accumulations it'll probably be in the form of hail or sleet, and it'll be short lived.


The Puget Sound Convergence zone that I'm talking about here is a wild card. It is probably the most challenging weather phenomena to forecast on the planet. This setup has a history in our area of bringing surprise hailstorms, thunderstorms and snow, even when temperatures start the day in the 50's.

Though not likely that we will see hail, snow, or thunder on Friday, I didn't want to have it completely ruled out. I'm not trying to scare everyone, I just want to make sure we're not surprised if we see any of the above mentioned wintery or stormy precipitation tomorrow evening.
 
In general though for Friday, plan to start the day with breezy conditions and steady rain. It'll shift over to showers or a convergence zone in the afternoon and evening hours before tapering off overnight. That convergence zone, if it forms over Shoreline and Lake Forest Park, could give us many kinds of weather depending on strength.

Saturday another round of rain is expected before breaking up into showers Saturday night. Sunday and Monday rain is likely. Temperatures are ranging between the low 40's and low 50's between the storms. 


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Frost Advisory issued signaling the end of the growing season

Saturday, October 24, 2020

 

frost covered Chair-boil BBQ lid.
Frost covered Char-Boil, December 2018.
Photo by Carl Dinse


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a frost advisory in effect from 2am until 10am Sunday morning. Gusty northeast winds are blowing a significant cold snap (for this time of year) into the area. The cold air moving in is bringing overnight temperatures into the low 30's, and some areas might drop into the upper 20's.

For Sunday afternoon through Tuesday we are expecting mostly sunny skies and clear nights. Frost is possible in areas in the overnight and early morning hours. We are looking at low temperatures in the low - mid 30's and highs in the upper 40's to low 50's.

Tuesday through next weekend temperatures moderate with a series of weak systems moving through the area bringing us a slight chance of showers and mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures look to return to the upper 50's to near 60 for a high, with lows in the mid-upper 40's.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory issued for Tuesday from noon to 6pm

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

 

residential street scene covered in evergreen tree limbs
Tree limbs littering 7th Ave NE in Shoreline, August 29, 2015.
Photo by Carl Dinse


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory for the greater Puget Sound region, including the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas. The wind advisory is in effect Tuesday from noon until 6pm. 

A wet and moderate storm system is expected to arrive Tuesday at about noon, bringing a half inch to one inch of rainfall for the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph, first out of the east, then switching to the south and southwest. 

Gusts could reach as high as 50 mph with this storm. Scattered power outages are likely especially as many deciduous trees have not dropped their foliage yet. Unsecured objects could be blown around as well.

Winds are expected to back off a little after 6pm on Tuesday but gusts to 40 mph are still expected and possible until after midnight. Weather Wednesday through next weekend calms down, but we still have the threat of rain showers on all days except Thursday. It will be partly sunny Wednesday with showers, then Thursday is mostly sunny. Friday the chance of rain returns and lasts through the weekend.

Our summer weather has come to an end and we now have entered the time of year when the storm train points at the Pacific Northwest. There's some early indications that we may have a couple sunny days next week but the high temperatures are expected to stay under 70°F.

The timing of this windstorm, which was not in the forecast until earlier Monday, comes one day after the anniversary of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm. That storm was by far the strongest wind event ever recorded in the Seattle area, with gusts reaching over 100mph. The Columbus Day storm originated as a tropical cyclone in the west Pacific that converted into a monster Pacific extratropical cyclone before making landfall on southern Vancouver island. 


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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