Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts

WeatherWatcher: The Fall equinox to roar in with rain and wind

Monday, September 21, 2020

 

Monday evening animated satellite loop
Satellite image Monday evening from the National Weather Service


Fall officially starts Tuesday morning September 22, at 6:31am PST. Less than 24 hours later, our first major fall storm is expected to arrive. We're expecting some breezy winds and a lot of rain. Below is the forecast for total rainfall on Wednesday in Western Washington.

Total Rainfall for 9-23 graphic forecast showing 1 to 1.5 inches for Shoreline
Graphic by the National Weather Service

For the area that includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park we are expecting 1 to 1.5" of rainfall between 8pm Tuesday night and 5am Thursday morning. Winds are expected to pick up as well. We could see gusts of up to 30 mph, but for the most part I'm expecting wind gusts between 15-20 mph.

The cause of all this rain can be seen in the animated satellite image at the top. A strong frontal system is expected to bring an atmospheric river event to the region, centered over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon.

Wednesday late night and through Thursday night there is a slight chance of thunderstorms, and another chance of thunder again Friday night. Rain is expected to continue at times Thursday, Friday, and rain is likely Saturday with our first real break from the precipitation Saturday evening.

Temperatures this week will average in the mid 60's for a high, and low to mid 50's for a low until the rain clears. 

Sunday looks mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Our first shot at a dry and sunny day appears to be Monday next week. Longer range forecasts suggest that next week may be a mostly sunny week, with high temperatures returning to the low 70's.

Bottom Line: One of the biggest concerns with an early heavy rain event is debris blocking storm drains. This can cause local standing water and urban flooding. Adopt a storm drain near you to monitor and keep clear. This will help prevent small urban flooding on local roadways and sidewalks. Scattered isolated power outages are possible if winds do get gusty.

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For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Smoke clinging to the region

Tuesday, September 15, 2020


West Coast color satellite animated loop


Above: Sunday's animated satellite loop from the National Weather Service, showing all the active smoke plumes on the west coast. 

The forecast has changed: The bad news first. The smoke is not likely to clear out of the area until at least Thursday. The Puget Sound Clean Air agency has issued an Air Quality Alert that has been extended through Thursday evening. Levels of smoke in the air are Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy for all groups at this time and expected to remain that way through most of the week.

Smoke and its impacts on weather are not very well, if at all, anticipated by forecast models. The smoke on Saturday and Sunday was so thick that solar heating of the surface basically didn't happen. Instead the upper layers of the atmosphere warmed up, creating a temperature inversion that we normally only see during winter months.

Temperature inversions basically act like a dome, preventing any air mixing between upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. This has the effect of trapping all this smoke near the ground between our various mountain ranges.

As with many things this year, our optimism of smoke clearing out was destroyed when the storm we were expecting Monday night into Tuesday has changed direction and is now staying off shore. It is still getting close enough to set off some rain showers, but not enough for strong mixing winds to break up the temperature inversion.

What to expect: This smoke is going to linger for several more days. The storm system bringing us showers Tuesday through Thursday is slowly spinning off shore and expected to weaken as the week progresses. With little certainty the smoke might start clearing out by the end of the week but right now there is no solid indication on how this smoke layer will behave.

Isolated hit or miss thunderstorms are possible going into Thursday night and through Friday. Our chance of showers continues through Saturday, with a potential for a partly sunny Sunday. Temperatures are likely to stay below the 70°F mark through the weekend, with lows in the low to mid 50's.

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For current weather conditions and resources visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Areas of smoke; Rain returns to the forecast

Friday, September 11, 2020

 

Smoke filtered Sun in the sky.
Smoke filtered morning sun September 6, 2017.
Photo by Carl Dinse



The forecast has some hope for us early next week with the return of clouds, cooler temperatures, and some light rain. However, we have a lot to get through before we get to Monday.

Friday through Sunday we are expecting "sunny" skies with areas of smoke. Highs near 80°F on Friday, and then down into the 70's in the weekend.

You can see in the color satellite image below a thick brown cloud cover over southwest Washington, western Oregon, and out in the Pacific Ocean west of Oregon and northern California.

I want to be clear, none of what appears to be clouds in this image over Oregon or Washington is water clouds. All of that brownish cloud cover is wildfire smoke from the massive wildfires in the Oregon Cascades, and California.

Visible color satellite image of the West Coast of North America.
Satellite image on September 10, 2020 at 5:10pm PDT.


Winds are changing as I write this and by Friday morning the winds will push a lot of that smoke in Western Oregon and off the Pacific coast right into the Puget Sound region. 

The Puget Sound Clean Air agency has issued a Wildfire smoke alert. Air quality conditions are expected to be unhealthy for sensitive groups, and possibly unhealthy for everyone. These conditions are expected to last through the weekend.

In addition to the air quality alert, the King County Fire Marshal issued a stage 2 burn ban. This burn ban prohibits all outdoor recreational fires, which includes backyard fire pits or campfires using chopped firewood or charcoal. Outdoor cooking and heating appliances are limited to approved manufactured gas and charcoal units only. 

Once we get through all of that, at this time it appears by Sunday evening the smoke will start to clear out of the region, as an approaching storm front brings a chance of rain to the region Monday morning and afternoon, with rain likely by Monday evening.

Rain is expected to continue Tuesday morning, with showers in the afternoon behind the storm front. There is a possibility of a thunderstorm or two with the showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through next Friday mostly cloudy skies and the chance of showers stay with us. Temperatures reaching the low to mid 70's for a high and overnight temperatures in the 50's.

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For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wildfire Smoke and Heatwave

Monday, September 7, 2020

Smokey sunset at Richmond Beach Salt Water Park
Smoky sunset over Olympics at Richmond Beach August 1, 2010.
Photo by Carl Dinse


We have an unusual late season heatwave that is moving its way into our region this week. This heatwave is actually being caused by an arctic high over the Rocky Mountains.

This has brought strong north winds over eastern Washington and strong northwest winds over western Washington today. The winds in eastern Washington fanned up some pretty large wildfires, all of which were man-made or caused by fallen power lines. These fires have generated enormous plumes of smoke. 

The winds also created a dust storm across the Columbia plateau. 

Visible color satellite image Monday September 7, 2020 at 6:36pm PST.


As the heatwave moves west over western Washington, the north winds have changed to east winds, bringing the smoke plume of the biggest wildfire in eastern Washington over the mountains and into the Puget Sound lowlands. Air quality has already started declining rapidly and is expected to be pretty unhealthy for everyone by Tuesday morning.

Apart from all the smoke, we are expecting clear nights and sunny skies all week and next weekend. 

Lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's and highs in the low to mid 80's, with the warmest day being Thursday possibly reaching up to the lower 90's. Winds are expected to continue to be breezy from the north and northeast. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph are expected at least through Wednesday evening.

Monday's winds reached a maximum gust at the Richmond Beach station of 28 mph. Our high temperature on Monday was 85°F east of 8th Ave NW, and around 78°F near the Puget Sound. 

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For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Excessive heat watch in effect for Sunday

Friday, August 14, 2020

 

Landscape view of Aldercrest Annex fields
Aldercrest Annex Fields July 2015
Photo by Carl Dinse


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued an Excessive Heat Watch in effect for Sunday morning through Sunday evening, August 17.

From the National Weather Service:
  • What: Very hot conditions with afternoon temperatures in the 90's.
  • Where: Portions of northwest and west central Washington. (This includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.)
  • When: From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.
  • Impacts: Very hot conditions will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those who are sensitive to heat.
  • Additional Details: Hottest temperatures are expected in locations away from the water including Cascade valleys.  
Forecast: Sunny skies and clear nights are expected Friday through next Tuesday.

High temperatures expected:
  • Friday: Mid 70's
  • Saturday: Upper 70's to lower 80's.
  • Sunday: Upper 80's to mid 90's. North winds could gust up to 30mph, this could increase urban brushfire or wildfire risks.
  • Monday: Lower to Mid 80's.
  • Tuesday: Lower to Mid 80's.

Our low temperature Sunday night may stay as warm as the mid 60's, so it may be a very uncomfortable night going into Monday morning.

Next week Tuesday night through Thursday looks to have partly cloudy skies return with a chance of showers intermittently. High temperatures cool back down to the mid 70's to near 80°F, with lows near 60°F.

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For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: July in Review, Forecast

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Sunny day over North City
Photo by Carl Dinse on August 4, 2019

This year, summer seems to be almost completely text book normal for Shoreline so far. July rounded off at 64.5°F for an average temperature, compared to the 10 year average of 63.5°F. Our last week's heat wave was what it took to nudge it from below average to slightly above average. Rainfall was around half of the normal 10 year average, but when you're talking 0.17 inches of rain compared to 0.48 inches of rain, it isn't much of a concern.

The forecast I had last week was a bust, Tuesday topped out at 92°F for a high temperature. Though if you were west of 8th Ave NW (on the hill going down towards the Puget Sound) high temperatures there topped out at about 86-87°F. Temperatures slowly moderated towards the end of the week but the expected morning showers on Friday never arrived.

Here's the daily high and low temperature graph for July 2020, compared to average. The last week of July and first week of August are typically our hottest and driest weeks of the summer.


Forecast: Sunday we are looking at sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80's. Monday some morning clouds move in for partly cloudy skies, and a slight chance of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday return to sunny skies, with highs in the low 80's, and lows in the upper 50's.

Thursday another slight chance of showers returns with partly - mostly cloudy skies, and the threat of showers returns again Friday morning as well. High temperatures are expected to be back down into the mid 70's. Friday afternoon and on through next weekend looks to be clear and sunny, but not as hot. Lows in the upper 50's and highs in the mid-upper 70's.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Short heatwave in the forecast

Sunday, July 26, 2020


Sunny Weather
N 185th St looking east from Aurora Ave N
Photo by Carl Dinse

When it comes to temperature forecasts for our area one of the biggest questions I am always asked:

Why does it always seem to be a few degrees cooler in Shoreline or north Seattle than the forecasted high temperature?

Forecast models are run for specific areas, typically based on major airports since that is where weather data has been recorded for several decades. In our case the forecast for Seattle is based on what is expected at Sea-Tac airport. The next closest forecast spot is Paine Field in Everett. 

You have to come up with a magic blend between the two areas to come up with an expected high temperature for the Shoreline area. In addition there are high resolution forecast models that can narrow things down to several square kilometers, but they only go 1-3 days out. Of course the farther out you try to forecast, the greater the uncertainties get.

For a 5 day forecast, I go through forecasts for Everett and Seattle. In addition to those two forecasts I look at the general weather pattern that is set up over Western Washington, use my experience with how those patterns have interacted with the region in the past, and blend it all together to come up with what I expect to see for weather in the Shoreline area.

Forecast:

Monday is expected to be the hottest day this week. We are looking at mid 80's, with a slight chance of a high in the upper 80's but I don't think we'll break the 90°F mark. There is a heat advisory in effect on Monday for Seattle south, through Tacoma, Olympia and Chehalis. This heat advisory is not in effect for the Shoreline area.

Tuesday - Thursday we start to slowly cool back down. Highs in the upper 70's to low 80's on Tuesday, Wednesday highs a little warmer, to around 82°F or so. Thursday comes down into the upper 70's with increasing clouds in the evening.

Friday through Sunday we go back to the partly cloudy skies at times, with morning drizzle or showers. Temperatures will be back down into the low 70's for a high and upper 50's for lows.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com





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WeatherWatcher: Special Weather Statement issued for strong storm Saturday night

Saturday, June 13, 2020

University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Science
Storm cell circled in red


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a special weather statement for the Seattle, Everett and East Puget Sound vicinity which includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The special weather statement is in effect until 9:25pm Saturday evening.

As seen in the above color-visible satellite image taken at 8:46pm, a large storm cell has formed over the North King county and South Snohomish county area. Though no lightning has been detected in this cell, the National Weather Service is calling this a line of thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are expected, along with pea sized hail, and winds gusting up to 30mph.

The main impacts which have already occurred and are expected to continue are small areas of localized flooding on area roadways. The statement also says "do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways." The storm is slowly moving east at about 5mph and is expected to move out of the area and dissipate over the next 30-45 minutes.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Our slight chance of thunderstorms has become more likely for Saturday night

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Lightning over Bellevue from Log Boom Park July 3, 2008
Photo by Carl Dinse

This Saturday morning's slight chance of thunderstorms verified, even though as late as Friday night the forecasts were leaning towards this system staying east of the Cascades. We got quite the impressive show of lightning and thunder.

The National Weather Service in Seattle even issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Shoreline Saturday morning at 8:15am, in effect until 8:45am with dime sized hail possible. The last time a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Shoreline, I believe, was August 2006 when we had urban flash floods caused by a daytime thunderstorm cell.

The cloud tops for these thunderstorm cells reached as high as 45,000 feet, which is what prompted the large hail warning. Lightning was reported hitting a tree in Kirkland, knocking picture frames off walls of nearby houses and sending wood debris as far as a block away from the damaged tree.

Round 2 is now expected: Radar indicates another band of heavy showers moving through the area between 2pm and 3pm, but it does not appear any lightning is currently associated with this band. We should have a good break from the rain after 3pm or 4pm; we might even see some sunny skies for a couple hours late in the afternoon and early evening.

Our next band of possible thunderstorms moves in from Oregon sometime between 7pm and 10pm. The peak of it should be over Shoreline around 9pm, according to the recent high resolution forecast models. Forecasters are still calling for a slight chance of lightning, but we are expecting heavy rain at times. We could receive up to 1 inch of new rainfall this evening.

Severe thunderstorms are expected over the Cascade mountains, and Eastern Washington could see super cell development.  The National Weather Service even has severe thunderstorm watches and flash flood watches in effect for Eastern Washington. It is very likely we will at least be able to see some of the lightning from the Cascade mountains, especially if you have a good view looking east.

Our slight chance comes in play as we can't rule out some of those Cascade thunderstorms drifting west over the Puget Sound Lowlands, or if some of the heavier rain showers get a good electrostatic charge going.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: June Gloom on the way, very slight chance of thunderstorms

Friday, May 29, 2020

Clouds over the Puget Sound September 16, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

June Gloom: We have one more day of warm dry weather before the return of a more seasonable pattern arrives. Friday should be a partly sunny day with a lot of high clouds in the area. We will likely top out in the mid to upper 70's, pretty close to what we saw on Thursday.

Saturday morning the weather pattern changes, with a cool down and rain showers moving in. There has been some uncertainty in the transition. If the cool down is rapid enough, there is a slight chance that we could see a thunderstorm or two move through the area. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to stay in the 60's with lows near 50°F or the upper 40's.

Saturday night could see another type of weather we haven't seen in a while, wind. Though I think most of the wind action will likely be south of downtown Seattle, we are expecting winds as strong as 30mph Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Sunday morning and afternoon more rain is expected, but it should start to taper off by the later afternoon hours on Sunday, with a high temperature in the mid to upper 60's.

Monday morning through Tuesday morning skies will break off to partly cloudy with dry weather, continuing the trend of upper 60's for a high temperature and lows in the upper 40's to near 50°F.

Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week the chance of showers returns with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures might increase a little to the lower 70's for highs.

Longer range forecasts seems to be trending to the typical June-like weather of partly to mostly cloudy skies with the chance of showers into the middle of the month. There are some indications we could enter a drier pattern in the second half of the month, but it's far too early to be certain.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Slight chance of thunderstorms

Sunday, May 3, 2020

Storm clouds in February 2011, Richmond Beach
Photo by Carl Dinse


Forecast: Saturday morning and afternoon we had a strong cold front move through bringing us a pretty decent dose of rainfall. The weather stations in the area, including my own, recorded around a quarter inch of rain during the day.

Behind the cold front some convective weather is moving through. So for Sunday we are expecting showers mixed with sun breaks. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm during Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday we are expecting mostly sunny weather, but with a slight chance of a shower here and there. Another storm system moves through Wednesday for another dose of rain. 

Thursday through next weekend and possibly beyond, sunny skies, clear nights. We are looking at high temperatures making it well into the 70's Friday and beyond. There are signals in the long range forecast that suggest we might see upper 70's and maybe even break the 80°F mark early next week.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Surprise rain storm, Forecast for next week

Saturday, April 18, 2020

April Showers bring May, I mean July Flowers.
Photo by Carl Dinse

We had a surprise rain event Saturday morning, that was not very well forecasted by anyone. Sure, we were expecting a chance of some showers, mainly light, less than a 10th of an inch. The upper level low that was responsible for the chance of showers managed to center right over Seattle. The rotation of the upper level low gave us some pretty steady rain for a few hours Saturday morning, bringing almost a half inch of rain to the area.

Forecast: I wouldn't worry about watering the lawn this week.

We are drying out overnight into Sunday morning as high pressure regains dominance over the region. We should have a nice sunny Sunday with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 60's. Monday should be a repeat of Sunday, lows in the 40's and highs somewhere in the low to mid 60's.

Monday night things start to change. The high pressure breaks down and opens the jet stream up into our direction. Clouds increase, with a chance of showers returning on Tuesday. Rain is likely Wednesday, breaking up to showers Wednesday evening with even a slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Mostly cloudy conditions continue Thursday and into next weekend, with a chance of rain remaining in the forecast. Temperatures Tuesday through the weekend are expected to top out in the mid-upper 50's, maybe even a 60°F here and there, with lows in the 40's.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Dry weather and a little warmer this week

Monday, April 6, 2020

Richmond Beach Saltwater Park under partly sunny skies
Photo by Carl Dinse on April 4, 2020.

Forecast: Warming up and drying out is the trend in store for us this week. Partly sunny to sunny skies are expected all week until Friday evening. Lows through the entire week are expected to be right around 40°F. Warmest days expected are Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Daily high temperatures expected by The National Weather Service for Shoreline:

  • Monday: 57°F
  • Tuesday: 54°F
  • Wednesday: 56°F
  • Thursday: 60°F
  • Friday: 58°F
  • Saturday and Sunday: 54°F

Clouds and the chance of rain expected to return by Friday evening and will likely last through the weekend.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Week of breezy, stormy weather, and cool rain showers

Monday, March 30, 2020

Partly sunny skies on March 29, 2020
Photo by Carl Dinse


Forecast: We have a cool and unsettled weather pattern taking hold over the area to start this week. Early Monday morning a cold front is expected to move through the region bringing steady rain for an hour or two and some gusty winds. We're looking at about a quarter to a half inch of rain with this system, and winds gusting to 25-30mph.

Monday afternoon and evening, along with Tuesday afternoon and evening, showers remain a threat, as well as a slight chance of some thunderstorms. In general it'll probably just be a one clap wonder, and then done. There could be some downpours, some with small hail or other various forms of mixed frozen precipitation, common with convective thunderstorm activity.

Wednesday will seem a little calmer, with only a slight chance of a shower throughout the day. We could still see a stray lightning bolt Wednesday evening as well.

Thursday through the weekend, the chance of showers remains slight, with partly sunny skies. For the entire week and into the weekend we are looking at cool temperatures, highs around 50°F, with low temperatures ranging in the upper 30's to low 40's.

Longer range forecasts are hinting at some warmer daytime temperatures, but inconsistent on how dry or rainy we might be going into the second week of April. Our chances of frost are rapidly declining at this point in the season, but I can't rule it out completely quite yet.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Snowflakes in the forecast, then cold and sunny

Friday, March 13, 2020

Spring like snow from the past in Shoreline.
Photo by Carl Dinse

We have some snowflakes in the forecast, but no need to panic about this one. We have a weather pattern set up, that if it happened in December or January it would give us a good blast of below freezing high temperatures and a light 2-4 inches of snow. However, this is coming during the middle of March, and the sun is much stronger now.

We have the storm system moving in overnight into Friday morning. It will bring some rain, and there might be a short period of time mid Friday morning where some snow or other wintery mix could join the rain for an hour or two. Rain at times is expected during the afternoon hours and into the evening Friday.

Friday night the cold air starts to surge south, changing the lingering rain showers into snow showers. At this point though, most of the moisture will be south of Shoreline, so no accumulations are expected here. Temperatures will drop into the low 30's.

Saturday is expected to be mostly cloudy, but there may be some rain or snow showers in the morning hours. There could be breezy or gusty northerly winds during Saturday afternoon as well. High temperatures are expected to be right around 40°F.

Saturday night skies start to clear and temperatures drop to the mid to upper 20's. Sunday and beyond we are expecting clear nights and sunny days, with temperatures slowly moderating. Lows will average in the low to mid 30's with high temperatures around the low-mid 40's to the start of next week. High temperatures are expected to be making it to the mid and upper 50's late next week.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect, snow in the forecast

Friday, January 31, 2020

A snow shower from Shoreline's past.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory which is in effect until 7am Saturday morning. Strong winds are expected, with gusts as high as 45mph overnight into Saturday morning. Local power outages are possible, unsecured objects could be blown around, falling small tree branches possible.

The strongest winds have probably ended but it is still expected to be gusty during most of the overnight hours into Saturday morning.

We are expecting a lot of rain Saturday, with big changes occurring late Saturday night. Snow levels drop, at first to about 500 feet, which is above most areas in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park area. So late Saturday evening we could start seeing snow mixing in with rain showers.

By Sunday morning the snow level is down to 300 feet, with a chance of snow, turning over to rain during the afternoon hours. Sunday night back down to snow and rain mix, or snow after midnight, with the snow level near 300 feet once again.

Monday, mostly cloudy but dry, highs around the low 40's and lows down into the 30's.

Tuesday our next storm approaches, starting as snow early in the morning with breezy winds. We warm up quickly to the mid 40's Tuesday afternoon, when everyone should be back to 100% rain. Rain is expected to continue Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures, highs near 50°F and lows in the mid to upper 40's.

Bottom line: This current threat of snow is not a major event. It is very marginal, warmer than the January events. Any snow that accumulates will likely quickly melt away during the afternoon hours.

There is one wild card in this mix, a Puget Sound Convergence zone is expected Saturday night, but where it will be is very uncertain. The convergence zone is probably the only weather feature that is likely to generate accumulating snowfall in the area. The zone could produce possibly 1-4 inches, but it is unknown where it will form and park. Some models have another Puget Sound Convergence zone Sunday evening as well. Both events could create a window of opportunity for accumulating snow.

Both Saturday evening and Sunday evening's events have been forecasted to be anywhere between Everett and Sea-Tac, but in a narrow west to east band about 3-10 miles wide.

I'll reiterate however, this snow threat is on the warm side, and most accumulating snow isn't going to last very long especially during the daylight hours.

Extended forecasts are pointing to a cooler pattern at the end of next week, and at this time more snow is in that forecast but it's a bit early to have any details figured out. Long range forecasts are pointing toward a bigger cold snap in the second half of February. The idea has been in the long range forecasts now for about two weeks but keep in mind, the farther out the forecast, the less accurate it is.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Warning canceled

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

The National Weather Service in Seattle has canceled the Winter Storm Warning that was issued earlier Tuesday evening.

The storm bringing heavy bands of snow is tracking about 50 miles further north than was forecasted.

The Winter Storm Warning continues for our neighbors to the north in Snohomish County. Most of the activity, however, is north of Everett so far. There is still a chance of accumulating snowfall after midnight Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

The remainder of the forecast at this time seems to be about the same as my previous report earlier Tuesday. Snow showers will slowly change over to rain showers between Wednesday afternoon and Friday. Expect breezy to windy conditions early Wednesday morning and afternoon. We could see some wind gusts as strong as 40mph.

I don't think this is going to be the only or last time we see snow this winter. More opportunities appear to exist at the end of the month or first weeks of February, so keep the snow gear handy.

For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Warning issued Tuesday, changes in Forecast

8 years ago, Snow in Shoreline January 12, 2012
Photo by Carl Dinse


Winter Storm Warning: The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Winter Storm Warning for area that includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

From the National Weather Service on the Warning:

  • What: Areas of heavy snow expected. Snow will spread east from the Olympic Peninsula later this evening and into the overnight hours. Localized heavier snow bands are expected to develop, especially from northern King County into Snohomish County. Areas within heavier bands could receive 3 to 5 inches of new snow. Elsewhere, outside of the heavier bands, widespread light to moderate snow may accumulate, 1 to 3 inches. Uncertainty continues in the placement of the heavy snow bands. Widespread snowfall will lift north towards the Canada border into Wednesday morning.
  • Where: Portions of northwest and west central Washington.
  • When: Until 7am PST Wednesday
  • Impacts: Travel, including the morning commute, could be very difficult. 

Substantial change in the Forecast:

Tonight's snow storm was not expected until it showed up in computer models this morning. For Shoreline we are about 10 miles north of the boundary for the heavy snow the models are projecting. This is the first time I've seen a winter storm warning issued for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park in many years.

What to expect Tuesday night: Forecast models are calling for 3-5 inches of snow in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low-mid 20's Tuesday night as the storm arrives. Winds are expected to pick up after midnight as well, gusting up to 35mph out of the southeast.

Wednesday - Friday: We start our transition of warming up. Wednesday morning snow showers are likely, but as the afternoon warms up we could see partly sunny skies with a chance of snow showers, maybe some rain if you're near the water. Snow levels are expected to rise to around the 500 foot level Wednesday evening and stay between 300 feet and 500 feet Thursday and Friday.

We warm up Friday evening and Saturday and everywhere should be all rain in the lowlands. Steady rain Saturday and Saturday night is expected. Sunday and Monday we are looking at mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of rain, lows near 40 and highs in the upper 40's.


For current weather conditions, watches, warnings or advisories visit: www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Watch issued, Forecast

Sunday, January 12, 2020

Snow at the top of motorcycle hill (NE 185th ST and 12th Ave NE.
February 2019, Photo by Carl Dinse


Winter Storm Watch: The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a winter storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.

  • What: Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a trace to 2 inches possible, some areas could see up to 5 inches.
  • Where: Seattle, Everett, Tacoma areas, this includes Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.
  • When: Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

Forecast: As you may have gathered, since there is a winter storm watch in effect, snow is certain in the forecast. How much snow is still uncertain even less than 24 hours away. The reason for this uncertainty? the Puget Sound Convergence zone. Models are having a hard time pinning down how strong it could get, and how fast or slowly it could move. 

Right now most models are indicating the areas from Everett to North Seattle could pick up around 5 inches of snow, maybe even 7 inches of snow if it gets really intense. 
Past convergence zones have been known to surprise forecasters and computer models by dumping anywhere from 6 inches of snow to 14 inches of snow when only 1-3 inches of snow or no snow at all was expected.

I know of several examples of convergence zones that were not forecasted until they were on top of us and left us buried in 6-8 inches of snow. April 2008 was one of them, December 18, 1990 was another, and I can remember one in the mid 90's as well that brought us 6-7 inches of wet snow. All three of those events were not forecasted at all until after the snow started falling, and then the accumulations were always underplayed. 

A second uncertainty is how cold it will be before the arctic front moves south. It could be cold enough during the day Sunday for some areas to see snow before the arctic air mass moves in, which could easily add a couple inches of wet snow accumulation before the freeze.

Here's what we can generally expect on Sunday: Breezy south winds, gusting to 35mph. Rain at times, up to a half inch of rainfall is possible. Around 2-4 pm in the afternoon the cold air should be passing through Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Sometime in that transition or a little before that transition the rain will change over to snow. 

Winds will calm down as they switch from the south to the north. When the winds are in transition the convergence zone is overhead. Once north winds start getting gusty it'll be the indicator that the snow is heading south and should taper off to snow showers, likely late in the evening. 

When all is said and done, we could be sitting in anywhere from 1 - 7 inches of snow. Slight chance it could be more, but we'll probably stay under the 7 inch mark.

Forecast: 
Monday through Wednesday: Cold, cloudy with a chance of snow the entire period. Lows are expected to be in the low 20's, to upper teens, with highs near 30. Monday night or Tuesday morning is expected to be the coldest night.

Wednesday evening our next storm moves in, with increasing snow. Models are still not making up there mind but the latest runs seem to average another 5 - 6 inches of snow from this storm before it ends on Thursday or Friday. Temperatures are also a little inconsistent, we are not sure that some rain may mix in during the warmest periods of the day or not yet.

Right now, next weekend is showing a slight warm up. We are dealing with a lot of uncertainty that far out though so we'll have to wait until the middle of the week to see what it really looks like.


For current weather conditions, advisories, watches or warnings, visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Snow returns to the forecast, and a lot of cold

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Snow covered 10th Ave NE at North City Park
Photo by Carl Dinse, February 2019


I've been waiting until we got closer to this forecast to write about it. For the better part of the last 5-6 days some forecast models have been predicting a big arctic outbreak for the Puget Sound region. More forecast models are now starting to agree with the idea that at least some amount of arctic air is going to move in next week, and that this will be a relatively long lasting event.

So right now it's still really early and details are difficult to nail down. For this week, we have our first taste of frozen precipitation possible Thursday night or Friday morning in the form of a convergence zone.

At this time though it looks like this convergence zone will stay north of Everett, so Shoreline and Lake Forest Park will probably at best only see a couple of wet flakes fall in a shower or two. Even if the snow does fly here, it's still going to be pretty warm and is not likely to stick around long on pavement.

Friday another Pacific storm rolls in, bringing rain and wind, with high temperatures in the low to mid 40's. The rain is expected to continue overnight into Saturday before changing over to rain showers. Sometime Saturday night, likely late night, or during the day Sunday the cold air should start moving down. Some models show the cold air not arriving until late Sunday night or Monday.

Snowy NE 193rd St Shoreline
Photo by Carl Dinse, January 18, 2012


When the cold air does push in, a small arctic front is expected to form and bring some light snow through the area, or rain and snow mixed.

Current projections show the snow level hovering around 400-500 feet in elevation. 

Neighborhoods such as Hillwood, portions of Echo Lake, North City business district areas, and other inland higher hills could see trace amounts of snow accumulate.

Beyond Monday it's still really uncertain, with some models showing really cold weather, with lows possibly into the teens and highs in the 20's.

One model has been forecasting single digit lows, with high temperatures only making it to the teens, though most professionals do not think that will happen.

This model is relatively new and could be having some issues with handling certain variables.

The big snow makers are possible going into Tuesday, or Tuesday evening, and again late in the week, Thursday or Friday. 
We could see event totals from anywhere around 2-3 inches to 10-12 inches, or more. 

Bottom Line: Models are being consistent that cold air, and some snow will take place. They are not consistent on how cold, and how much snow.

Some models have forecasted little to no snow accumulation with temperatures marginally around freezing.

Most forecast models have been pointing to a typical cold snap, with highs in the upper 20's and low 30's with lows in the low-mid 20's. Some models have suggested much colder, and snowier. Most recent models I've seen tonight are leaning towards the colder idea.

I do believe it is more likely we will see some cold and snow, than not. In my experience when these models stick with a general idea like this for more than 2-3 days they generally get the idea correct. Details are not clear, so I will be watching this closely over the next couple of days and provide an update once it appears we have a better idea of what to expect.

On the longer range, it appears at this time the cold, however cold it gets, could continue well into February. It's looking like we could easily witness another noteworthy winter season before it's over.


For current weather conditions, watches, warnings and advisories, visit www.shorelineweather.com




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