Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts

WeatherWatcher: Moderate but short heat wave arriving late in the week

Monday, May 6, 2019

Sunny Skies over the Olympics from Richmond Beach Saltwater Park.
Photo by Carl Dinse


Forecast: Sunny skies are expected to dominate for the foreseeable future. Even the long range forecasts out there don't show any threat of rain until near the end of the month. As for our short range forecast, there has been a lot of talk of a heat wave coming this week.

I wanted to break this down and clear up some rumors I've been hearing. For Tuesday-Wednesday we are expecting high temperatures near or just above 70°F, which is slightly above normal but not out of the ordinary for this time of year. Thursday starts to warm a little bit as our onshore flow changes over to an offshore flow. This means the winds will come from eastern Washington instead of from the ocean.

Temperatures Thursday could get into the mid to upper 70's. Friday is going to be our hottest day, where we are looking at breaking the 80°F mark by 1-2 degrees. Cooler air begins to move back in with an ocean breeze Saturday afternoon so our high temperature might make it to 80°F, but will likely come back down into the low 70's quickly in the late afternoon or evening hours.

Sunday and beyond looks pleasant, with lows in the upper 40's to low 50's and highs in the upper 60's to low 70's with continued sunny skies.

Bottom Line: Sunny weather, slightly above normal temperatures for most of the week, with a 48 hour-long offshore wind-induced heat wave Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

Forecasts written for Seattle are typically written for what is expected at SeaTac airport, since that is the official recordkeeping station for the region. When I write weather forecasts for Shoreline Area News I'm writing what I expect to occur in this area. For several reasons SeaTac typically runs several degrees warmer than we do in most regional weather scenarios.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Rainy weather continues

Sunday, April 7, 2019

Rainy weather in Shoreline
Photo by Carl Dinse

Forecast: More wet weather is in store for us this week. Rain is expected for most of Monday, changing over to showers Monday evening. Showers remain in the forecast Tuesday through next weekend with the exception of a sunny afternoon on Friday.

We are expecting some more breezy times as well with Tuesday evening being the worst of it. Wind gusts Tuesday night could reach 25-35mph. Another breezy night is predicted for Wednesday night. Temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 50's to low 60's all week with lows in the lower to mid 40's. Overall this is very typical and seasonal weather for April.

Saturday's wind storm brought strong wind gusts between about 11am and 2:30pm. We had a wind advisory in effect during this time as well. There was a peak wind gust of 30mph at the Richmond Beach weather station. Sea-Tac airport saw gusts to 36mph and Paine Field airport in Everett saw a gust of 44mph. Many other areas in the Puget Sound ranged between 25-30mph. This storm was about 10-15mph less than forecasted.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Stormy weekend with High Wind Advisory

Friday, April 5, 2019

Fallen tree in Shoreline, Washington.
Photo by Carl Dinse


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a high wind advisory in effect from Saturday at 11am PDT until Saturday evening at 7pm PDT. Windy conditions are expected to continue overnight and increase further Saturday morning. Southwest winds of 20-35mph are expected Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 50mph.

Rain is expected as well with this storm, with around a quarter inch or so predicted for Saturday. Another half inch of rain is possible Saturday night. On Sunday another storm moves in bringing breezy conditions and up to one inch of rain through the day, changing over to showers after midnight.

Calmer weather returns during the week, but I'll have more on that forecast Sunday evening.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Near Springtime heat wave coming to area

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Sunny N 185th St, Shoreline
Photo by Carl Dinse


It's going to feel like June for the first half of the week. An upper atmosphere circulation pattern is causing very warm and sunny weather over the region for Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures for all three days are expected to break 70°F, with Tuesday being the warmest at possibly 72-73°F. Low temperatures are out of the risk of freezing for now, with lows in the low 40's.

Thursday is a transition day, with temperatures more seasonal, high around 63°F with a low near 40°F. Clouds will be increasing during the day Thursday as well. Friday a chance of rain returns, and right now it looks like the bulk of the rain will be Friday evening or Saturday morning. A threat of showers remains through next weekend with seasonal temperatures. Highs in the upper 50's to near 60°F and lows in the low 40's.

For those that are wondering about the statistics for February, it was 3rd coldest on record, and snowiest on record. We had two days with a high temperature below freezing, 18 days with a low temperature below freezing, and five of those nights got into the teens. The average temperature at the Northridge weather station in Shoreline was 34.1°F; normal for February at that station is 41.6°F.

The graph below shows the real picture of last month's cold weather.


As for snow, there were several events, with accumulations on seven days out of the month. Several of these events were back to back from February 8-12th. First snowstorm arrived Sunday evening February 3rd and ended around 11am February 4th. The last of the snow was Tuesday February 12th in the morning as things warmed slightly with rain mixing in.

For the second half of February we remained cold and on the margin of snow, with occasional showers. Some showers were mixed with snow or were all snow but they were non-accumulating. We had a total snow accumulation of 19.7 inches, and I believe the most we had on the ground at any one time was close to 14 inches. Our snowiest and coldest period since December 2008, and February 2019 is now ranked in history among the few Seattle region big snows.


Rainfall totals were below normal for the month, but part of that was due to the majority of our precipitation falling as snow. Some snow melt off makes it into the rain gauge but with the cold, dry winds during these snow events a lot of the snow was blown off of the gauge and evaporated from the gauge before it melted.

Longer range: Cooler weather is possible again near the beginning of April, but nothing like February. I think we are still at risk for some overnight frosts, probably through late April. We will probably have several dry periods with weak rainmakers once a week or so, but the trend is looking drier than normal with seasonal temperatures on average.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Another threat of marginal snow

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Marginal Snow Event February 24, 2011, Shoreline, Washington.
Photo by Carl Dinse

Another threat of marginal wet snow is in the forecast. Chances of accumulation are about the same as in the above photo, with no significant travel impacts expected.

Forecast: Another cold morning is expected Wednesday with lows in the upper 20's. Clouds begin approaching in the late morning and afternoon as our next system arrives. Wednesday night a chance of precipitation arrives, possibly mixing with snow late in the evening or Thursday morning. Snow levels are expected to reach around 500 feet by midnight Wednesday night, and drop down to around 200 feet Thursday morning for a short time.

Thursday rain or rain and snow showers are expected with the snow level starting the morning at 200 feet and rising in the afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected as well with southwest winds gusting to 35 mph possible. High temperature in the low 40's is expected.

Thursday night through Saturday afternoon a chance of showers remains in the forecast. Rain and snow or snow showers are expected in the night time hours and rain showers are expected in the day time hours. Highs in the mid 40's and lows in the 30's.

We get a break Sunday with sunny skies and a high temperature dare I say, near or just above 50°F. Another weather system approaches Monday bringing a new round of what looks like just rain showers.

Bottom Line: We are remaining on the margin of rain or snow showers. We could see a wet inch or two on the grass or other non-pavement surfaces through the week, but any impact on the roads is not expected. Sunday could be warm, and it looks like we might be slightly closer to normal temperatures heading into next week for a first time since February 1st.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Update: Brush of white stuff to mostly stay south

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Snow on the N 195th St connector trail February 5, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

There has been a significant update in the forecasts for Sunday night through Tuesday. In my previous report I had mentioned a possible snow event, but that there was extreme uncertainty in the forecasts at the time. Certainty in the models has improved, and we now have a better idea what is likely to happen.

The storm is expected to stay south, into the Portland metro area and surrounding areas of Oregon. This is leaving us with just a chance or slight chance of snow showers or flurries for the time being with no significant accumulations. Due to the southern track of this storm we are expecting to get colder, keeping us at risk of snow showers from Sunday evening through Thursday afternoon.

Bottom line: 
  • No significant snow event.
  • Flurries or snow showers are possible through the week.
  • Accumulations less than 1 inch.
  • Windy Monday, north winds gusting up to 35mph.
  • Low temperatures into the mid-20's through Thursday.
  • Mostly sunny and clear skies expected after Thursday.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Another brush of white stuff on the way

Friday, February 22, 2019

Shoreline, February 9, 2019
Photo by Carl Dinse


City streets might soon look like the ones in the above photo, again. We continue to be on the margin for the snow level, with rain showers and rain/snow mixed showers at times through the weekend. The big story is Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

Some colder air might make its way into the region Sunday evening as a new Pacific storm approaches from the south. We will be in that delicate balance of cold dry air evaporating the precipitation before it reaches the ground, or the warm pacific storm pushing enough mild moist air in to precipitate as rain.

Now, because of this delicate scenario, the forecast models have been all over the place. Some have indicated 10 inches of snow, others have indicated no snow. This has also changed on each run as we get closer to the event. Right now, it appears the consensus is 0 to 3 inches of snow could fall in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas by Tuesday afternoon.

Bottom line: This is one of those set ups that could be a non-event (no snow), or it could dump 10-12 inches of snow. In my experience with this situation, I think we would likely see up to 6 inches, but the potential is there for much greater amounts or much less. Be prepared for winter driving conditions from Sunday evening through Wednesday. As always I will try to provide updates if forecasts become better developed.

Rest of next week: The forecast for the remainder of next week is still cooler than normal with showers around. At this time it looks like those showers should be rain into next weekend. There could be more threats of lowland snow or rain/snow mixed showers into the first week of March.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Rain returns for now

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Photo by Carl Dinse

Rain has returned and remains in the forecast for the next couple of days. We are looking at high temperatures in the upper 30's, maybe low 40's for Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures for the next 7 days are still looking to be near or below freezing.

For Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening we are expecting rain at times, with breezy winds out of the south. We could see a couple wind gusts to 35 mph Thursday night. Friday through Saturday night we are expecting rain showers, highs near the mid 40's and lows in the 30's.

This should put an end to most of the snow and slush in the area by Saturday evening.

On Sunday, the threat of snow returns, but remains marginal at this time. Snow levels are expected to hover between 300-500 feet from Sunday through Monday night. Right now the forecast is calling for rain and snow mixed showers through this period. No accumulations are expected right now. 

Tuesday morning could start with snow showers but change over to rain showers in the afternoon, with highs near 40°F. The threat of rain showers continues into Wednesday next week.

Long range: We are still looking at a high probability of colder than normal temperatures with near or slightly above average precipitation. This is probably not the last snow event for this winter season. We have off and on chances of snow or snow mixed with rain in the longer range forecasts into at least the first week of March.

On the topic of snow storms, many have compared this event to other record February snows in this region. The 1916 big snow leaving 35+ inches of snow on the ground was actually fairly short lived. In addition, that week in 1916 was several degrees warmer on average than this past week of snow.

I'm still working on comparisons and will do a separate report to compare this series of snow events with other historic events in the past. One thing is certain, this past week and a half will be among the greats for Seattle area snows. Shoreline's total snow accumulation since February 2nd was just shy of 20 inches. This was the biggest snowfall since December 1996 where we had 24 inches on the ground before a changeover to a very warm rain.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com





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WeatherWatcher: Uncertainties, Winter Storm Watch Continues

Sunday, February 10, 2019

10th Ave NE, in front of Ridgecrest Elementary February 5, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The Winter Storm Watch for Monday afternoon - Tuesday afternoon remains in effect. We are under a Winter Weather Advisory until Monday at 4am.

We've already received between 2-3 inches of new snow in the Shoreline area Sunday evening. We are expecting a total of 2-4 inches before the snow showers end shortly after midnight tonight.

The next storm is expected to arrive Monday afternoon. There is much uncertainty with this storm's track, and it may bring in some warmer air in the upper atmosphere at times as it wobbles past the west coast. By Tuesday afternoon we are still expecting a storm total of 5-6 inches of new snow. It's possible to see some freezing rain, sleet, graupel or other wintery mixes at times Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Forecast for the remainder of the week continues to have a lot of uncertainty with temperatures and snow levels. More snow showers are expected Wednesday and Thursday. There's a possibility that we will warm up briefly Thursday night and Friday for some rain, and wind. More cold arrives in the weekend though for another chance of white stuff.

I want to stress that forecast models are running with a high level of uncertainty and that anything is possible for this week. We are expected to stay cold, but some models have us on the margin of freezing, allowing for some cold rain or freezing rain at times. Other forecast models indicate we could have 20 inches of snow on the ground by Thursday.

Bottom line: Winter weather conditions are likely for at least another 5-7 days in one form or another with some possible breaks in between storms. At this point the biggest impact will be travel, especially if we get freezing rain.


For current conditions and winter storm updates visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Watch Sunday - Tuesday Night

Saturday, February 9, 2019

NE 194th St from 10th Ave NE (North City) February 9, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

Our Friday afternoon through Saturday morning snow storm brought Shoreline a new snow accumulation total of between 5 to 7 inches of snow.

The winds with this storm caused snow drifts resulting in some spots getting more snow, other spots getting less snow, especially around buildings and trees. With the older 2 inches of snow left on the ground from the previous storm we probably have a total snow accumulation on the ground between 7-9 inches in most neighborhoods.

Now for round three: The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas including Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

The Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon until late Tuesday night.

I'm expecting this to turn into a Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday, and a Winter Storm Warning for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. The National Weather Service will release updates on this likely tomorrow morning.

There are two back to back weather systems with the first one moving in Sunday afternoon. The first storm appears to be tracking south of us but close enough that we are expecting between 1 to 3 inches of new snow.

The second storm system is moving in right behind the first one and is expected to be another widespread hit. We are expecting between 5 to 8 inches of new snow with the second storm Monday into Tuesday night. There is potential for the second storm to be bigger than the Friday evening - Saturday morning storm we just experienced.

Bottom line: Total accumulation from the next two storms could be 6 to 11 inches of snow, on top of the 7-9 inches of snow we currently have. This could potentially put us at a total snow depth up to 20 inches by Tuesday night.

Dare I mention that we have another storm possible Thursday or Friday? It's too early for details right now.


Be sure to check back with www.shorelineweather.com current conditions and storm updates.



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Warning extended until 4pm Saturday

Friday, February 8, 2019

Heavy snow February 4, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle has extended the Winter Storm Warning to 4pm Saturday. Previously the warning was set to expire at Noon Saturday.

  • Storm totals are expected to be around 4-6 inches, possibly as much as 8 inches for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park
  • Winds out of the North to Northeast Saturday 15-30mph with some local gusts to 45mph possible
  • Heaviest snow accumulations expected between Midnight and 8am Saturday
  • Expect bands of heavy snow to move through from south to north overnight and Saturday afternoon. There may be some short breaks in between snow bands.

A winter storm warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

We've already received 2-3 inches of new snow accumulation in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas. Some local spots saw the snow briefly change to rain Friday afternoon before changing back to snow. Temperatures were a little warmer than expected, but are now cooling down and we are below freezing at the time that I am writing this.

The snow scene in the North City neighborhood February 8, 2019.
Photo by Brittany Ledyard


We'll get a short break on Sunday but temperatures will be cold, with lows in the upper teens and highs in the upper 20's or low 30's.

Monday more snow showers return, with a couple of larger snow storms possible next week.

Timing right now appears to be Tuesday morning for storm number 3, and Wednesday night into Thursday for storm number 4.

Still no sign in the next 7-14 days of a warm up.


Stay safe and I will provide more updates on this cold snap as information becomes available. For current conditions and immediate updates on warnings, watches or advisories, visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Storm Warning issued

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Ashworth Ave N from Echo Lake Park, February 4, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a winter storm warning in effect starting Friday at 12pm and ending Saturday at 12pm. In general 3-6 inches of snow is expected from this storm, but amounts can vary widely, with up to a foot of snow possible in some locations.

North winds are expected to pick up as well with wind speeds of 15-25mph and gusts to 35mph. Temperatures during the day will probably drop to the mid 20's or are expected to remain in the mid-upper 20's through the evening and overnight. Power outages are possible, but probably not going to be as widespread as with Monday's storm.

This weather system is what is considered a near perfect snow-maker for the Pacific Northwest. The latest high resolution models I've reviewed seem to consistently paint an 8-10" accumulation over Shoreline and Lake Forest Park specifically, although it varies slightly from model to model on where that narrow band hits.

The forecast still keeps a chance of snow, and a few more snow events, on the radar for the rest of the weekend and next week. Still, no sign of warming up for the extended forecast. I suspect this cold snap is going to be historic when everything is done.


I'll keep updating as new information becomes available on this storm, and the future ones on the way. For current conditions and updates, visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Snow Day scenes, More on the way

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Interurban Trail at Echo Lake Park, February 4, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

A snow day for most on Monday, with 4 to nearly 5 inches on the ground throughout Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Our high temperature of 30°F was at midnight and the temperature just kept dropping from there. The storm picked up and added a couple more inches of snow on top of Sunday's snow and graupel overnight into Monday morning. Our daytime high temperature at about 2:15pm was 26-27°F.

North-northwest winds got pretty gusty too, bringing down some trees and tree limbs, knocking out power to thousands in the area. We had gusts at the Richmond Beach station of about 29 mph before it lost power, and again after power was restored a couple hours later.

Fallen tree on power lines, Wallingford Ave N at N 197th Pl
Photo by Carl Dinse

This was the scene on Wallingford just south of N 200th St. The tree was knocked over pointing south. We may have had a few good wind storms this winter but all have been south winds. We haven't had a "pruning" of trees with winds from the north until Monday. North winds combined with moderate snow accumulation on the trees resulted in the widespread power outages.

10th Ave NE looking south by North City Park, February 4, 2019.
Photo by Carl Dinse

We've have some really cold air in place now. Our low temperatures dropped into the teens Tuesday morning. Richmond Beach reported a low of 19°F, while inland the Northridge station reported a low of 17°F. Other areas further from water and north where heavier snow fell saw low temperatures in the lower teens. Our high temperature on Tuesday was 30°F, and 31.7°F in Richmond Beach, just enough for sunny spots to have a little melt off.

Here's our daily high and low temperatures, graphed compared to the average at the Northridge station:


Forecast: More snow is on the way. In fact there isn't a real end to this cold arctic weather even in the 10 or 15 day forecasts.

It's probably a good idea to be prepared to deal with this stuff for a couple of weeks at least. I haven't seen a forecast or weather pattern like this since December 2008 (also known as snowmageddon). Some of you who have been here long enough may remember the infamous metro bus hanging over I-5 in Seattle.

Here's what I can tell you right now, there's uncertainty as always when it comes to forecasting snow timing and snowfall amounts here.

We have a storm coming in Friday evening. It is anticipated that snow will probably start falling around the 5-6pm time frame. This snow is expected to continue through Saturday afternoon. Total accumulations from this next storm are very uncertain, but ranges have been between 4 inches and 14 inches or so. None of the models have suggested anything less than 4 inches. Some have suggested up to 20 inches but I think that is unlikely at this time.

After Saturday's storm, we are looking at a chance of snow showers Sunday and Monday morning. Another storm approaches the area Monday evening for another round of accumulating snow, then a break Tuesday. Hints of even yet another snow event follow on next Wednesday.

I'm not going to try to give accumulation forecasts for the following storms until we get through the Friday/Saturday storm. As always keep checking back here for updates, I will provide them as new information becomes available.


For current conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Weather Advisory in effect

Monday, February 4, 2019

Scene at the Shoreline Weather Station February 3, 2019.
Photo by Robert Dinse

Temperatures were colder than forecasted today, so the rain showers we were expecting to start with quickly turned into or started as snow showers instead. Graupel was also present in the initial band of precipitation for the first 30 minutes or so this afternoon.

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7am Monday morning. Snow accumulations so far this evening have been a little over 2 inches inland, at places such as the North City neighborhood. Additional accumulations are expected as another band of precipitation moves through overnight Sunday into Monday morning with temperatures in the upper 20's.

Expect an additional 1-3" of snow possible overnight. With the lower temperatures, snow is likely to start sticking to the roads. Tough travel conditions are expected Monday morning, especially on neighborhood streets that haven't been treated yet.

For the rest of Monday, winds are expected to increase out of the north, with gusts to 40mph possible. Temperatures reaching the mid 30's for a high, with lows into the low 20's. We could even break into the teens still.

Rest of the week looks cold, sunny, highs in the 30's, lows in the 20's with our next weather system moving in Wednesday night to bring us another round of snow. I'll have more details on that system as we get closer to the middle of the week.


For current weather conditions and alerts, visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Cold and possible snow

Saturday, February 2, 2019

About an inch of snow at the east entrance of the 195th St pedestrian I-5 overpass.
Photo by Carl Dinse on February 9, 2014.


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a special weather statement regarding cold weather and possible snow on the way. There is a pool of Arctic air in British Columbia that is starting to spill south into Washington and Oregon. As the front moves south with a low pressure system off the west coast, showers are expected to pick up Sunday afternoon and evening.

Cold air will really start spilling into the Puget Sound area Sunday evening bringing temperatures down to below freezing with rain showers changing over to snow showers by around midnight. North winds are expected to pick up as well, 15-25 mph or so, increasing up to 40 mph Monday morning.

Snow accumulations are uncertain. Forecast models, even with about 24 hours to go, still keep changing their mind on amounts and locations. Generally it is likely we will see a trace to an inch of snow accumulation. It is very possible it could miss us altogether, especially for an area as small as Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

It is also possible we could get hit with up to 4 inches or so in a worst case scenario with this storm system. Most of the accumulating snow is expected between Midnight and 10am Monday morning.

Monday afternoon things will dry out, and stay cold under mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures in the mid 30's or colder, depending on snow cover with a strong northerly wind gusting up to 40mph in places. Monday night winds will continue to gust up to 35mph, out of the north, with low temperatures down into the lower to mid 20's. Some exposed areas with calmer wind might break into the upper teens.

Tuesday through Wednesday night the winds calm down, with mostly sunny and clear skies. Highs in the upper 30's to near 40°F, lows in the lower to mid 20's. Thursday - Saturday more weather approaches the area, with cold temperatures keeping us right on the margin of rain or snow during the entire forecast. There are not a lot of details right now, but there's potential for more significant and widespread lowland snow as those storms arrive.


Winter seems to have found its way to the Pacific Northwest. I'll provide updates as more details of the developing storms are available. For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Snowy weather looms, and rain returns

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Dusting of the white stuff in Shoreline, December 6, 2009.
Photo by Carl Dinse


Rain is expected to return by Thursday evening, going into the late night hours. With high temperatures Thursday in the low-mid 50's and lows down to the mid 40's, this is going to be a warm day for this time of year. Friday rain is expected to continue, with up to a half inch of rainfall possible and highs near 50°F.

Friday evening the rain breaks off into showers, and that pattern will extend through Sunday. Highs in the upper 40's for the weekend, lows in the upper 30's.

Now to discuss this looming weather, and how it's setting up. That "Polar Vortex" in the midwest is expected to retreat north later this week. Once the Polar Vortex has retreated, it is expected to redevelop over British Columbia over the weekend in a slightly less intense form.

Sunday night this new mass of arctic air slides south over Washington and Oregon. We will not see the severe cold temperatures the midwest saw Wednesday due to our elevation near sea level and our proximity to the Pacific Ocean.

Temperatures Sunday night are expected to dive into the low 30's or upper 20's after midnight, with rain showers turning over to snow showers. Snow showers are in fact possible Monday through Wednesday morning. We are possibly looking at breezy north winds as well during this cold period.

Models for snow this far out are not very good at forecasting accumulations. Right now, and this has been changing a lot, Shoreline and Lake Forest Park could see a dusting to a trace. Places north of Lynnwood appear to expect more snow.

Though the accumulations are inconsistent in the forecast models, the general idea has been consistent for the first time this winter season. We likely will get cold, and should have snow showers in the region. Some models suggest we could see a low temperature in the low 20's or upper teens Tuesday morning, but I'm going to lean towards mid-upper 20's for now.

I will provide updates as we get closer to the weekend when we might have a better idea of where the snow will fall and how much of it will fall.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Calm weather, windy weather, then calm weather again

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Super Blood Wolf Moon Sunday night
Photo by Steven H. Robinson


The Forecast: We have a fairly calm day ahead for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near the mid 40's. A chilly evening is ahead with lows in the upper 30's and some breezy conditions as our next storm arrives.

Tuesday rain is likely with a quarter inch possible, highs near 50°F with breezy south winds. Tuesday evening into Wednesday rain continues and it gets windy with wind gusts from the south up to 40mph. Wednesday the rain is expected to back off a bit with showers or rain at times. Lows Tuesday night around 35-40°F and highs Wednesday in the lower 50's.

Wednesday evening things calm down and the rest of the work week looks dry, mostly sunny or partly cloudy with highs near 50°F and lows into the mid-upper 30's.

Our next chance of rain appears to be next Sunday.

El Niño status: We are currently under an El Niño watch. It hasn't developed yet, but is expected to develop early February and continue into the 2019 spring season. There's only about a 65% chance that an El Niño will develop.

What this means for us? We should probably expect more of the same to continue with our winter weather patterns. I think we're going to see some more breaks from the storms with high pressure ridging over the west coast off and on through late winter and early spring.

We may also be the first snowless winter since the 1991-1992 winter season. There's one small hint of a chance of a cold snap near the beginning of February but it's very marginal, and too early to tell if we'll have any moisture with it.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Wind Storm statistics, Forecast

Sunday, January 6, 2019

Richmond Beach Station 24 Hour Data and Graph
The wind storm that was forecasted last night hit south of downtown Seattle hard, but spared Shoreline and Lake Forest Park from the strongest of winds. You can see from the graph that the wind picked up very suddenly, as forecasted. Winds peaked at 2:11 AM with a gust of 35 MPH. There was a second peak just after 4 AM with a gust of 34 MPH before things gradually calmed down through the rest of the morning and afternoon.

Shortly after the worst of the storm passed there were no reported power outages within the city limits of Shoreline or Lake Forest Park, according to the Seattle City Light outage map. Most of the power outages were confined to south of downtown Seattle.

Places south such as the I-90 floating bridge, and Sea-Tac Airport (Official weather records) saw gusts up to 60 MPH. Paine Field in Everett (which has the next closest record keeping weather station) lines up with Shoreline seeing a maximum gust of 41 MPH, so this was clearly a south Puget Sound hitting storm. The storm also got the Northwest interior of Western Washington where there was a severe thunderstorm warning issued for areas north of Everett and Whidbey Island.

Forecast: The train of Pacific storms is expected to continue into next weekend. Sunday night into Monday morning some colder air is mixing into the region so we could see some wet snow flakes mixed in with the rain showers Monday morning, no accumulations are expected. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30's Sunday night and Monday night, with a high temperature in the low 40's Monday afternoon with partly sunny skies.

Tuesday our next Pacific storm arrives, bringing up to a half inch of rain. Rain is expected to continue until Thursday evening with breezy conditions at times. Highs are expected to be near 50 with lows in the low-mid 40's.

Friday and through the weekend we are expecting mostly cloudy conditions with the threat of showers. High temperatures near 50, with lows in the lower 40's.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com.



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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory upgraded to High Wind Warning

Saturday, January 5, 2019

Photo by Wayne Pridemore

The National Weather Service in Seattle has upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning in effect Saturday evening from 10 PM PST until Sunday morning at 10 AM PST. Winds are expected to increase suddenly between 2 AM and 4AM Sunday morning with gusts as high as 60mph possible in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas.


Bottom line: Downed trees are possible, as well as damage to temporary structures and fences. Power outages are likely as well across the area. Charge your flashlights, phones and other portable electronics now while you still can.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com and check out the Richmond Beach station for maximum wind gusts.



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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect starting 10pm Saturday night


The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory for the Puget Sound region, including the areas of Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The wind advisory is in effect from Saturday night at 10pm until Sunday morning at 10am. Winds are expected to peak between 1am and 3am Sunday morning in our area. This storm system is moving from south to north through the center of the Puget Sound.

Southerly to southwest winds are expected to increase shortly after midnight to 20-35 mph, with gusts as high as 50mph. This storm has the potential to be as strong or stronger than our first wind storm in December. Local power outages are expected as well as snapped tree branches. Some down trees might be possible also.

As the day has progressed there continues to be some uncertainty with the forecast models in the strength of this windstorm. Some models indicate gusts as high as 60mph, where others expect gusts to only reach 40mph.

Bottom line: Be prepared for the possibility of power outages and fallen tree debris. This is likely going to be our second strongest, or strongest wind event of the winter season so far. Power outages should be about the same or less than our first storm, since we've had our trees pruned by the first storm earlier in December.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com and check out the Richmond Beach station for accurate measurement of wind gusts overnight.



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