Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts

WeatherWatcher: Regular fall weather to return

Sunday, October 21, 2018

N 195th St trail in the rain
Photo by Carl Dinse


Forecast: Our dry weather streak is about to end. We have one and a half more days of the foggy skies and dry conditions before a weak system moves through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. The jet stream is reconfiguring into a fall weather pattern and is expected to remain stable once the change happens.

The jet stream has been pointed north into Alaska and has been relatively weak. This week the jet stream is expected to strengthen and shift south into the Pacific Northwest. All of the forecast models have pretty good confidence that this shift will happen and maintain for the next week or so.

After Tuesday afternoon, we are expecting cloudy skies, showers, with highs near 60 and lows in the 40's through the end of next weekend. A weak system bringing rain Tuesday night, a stronger system bringing steady rain Thursday, showers Friday-Saturday and a steady rain event Sunday.

Last week's weather, which broke records at Sea-Tac for high temperatures above 70°F back to back, was pretty much isolated to Sea-Tac. In Shoreline and Lake Forest Park, we remained in the mid-upper 60's in the warmer days. In general, however, we are still running slightly below normal in average temperature for October at my Northridge Station. We are dry, about one and a half inches of rain below the average at the moment for October, but we may catch up a bit over the last half of the month.

Here are the daily high and low temperatures for October so far:


A better view of the average temperature is in the daily average temperature graph which gives a clearer view of above or below average trends.


There's a bigger low dip near the beginning of the month, compared to the small warm dip last week. In the long term I'm expecting near normal or slightly below normal temperatures to continue through early December for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Sea-Tac, where official records are kept, may be a different story.


For current weather conditions you can visit www.ShorelineWeather.com.



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WeatherWatcher: No end to sunny skies in sight

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Blue Skies and a Maple looking west on N 200th St and Linden Ave N
Photo by Lee Lageschulte

Blue skies and fall colors is the ongoing trend in our weather and forecast. We are expecting more of the same, sunny skies and clear nights. Some mornings might start with some patchy fog. High temperatures mainly in the 60's, though Tuesday could reach the lower 70's. Lows are expected to be in the 40's basically all week. This weather is expected to continue all the way through next weekend as this monster ridge of high pressure dominates the west coast all the way into Alaska.

Longer range forecasts indicate that we might see some drizzle or rain showers around October 23rd, but no real rain until the end of the month or beginning of November. So far we were at normal for rainfall until the sunny weather put a pause on it.


Temperatures are actually averaging below normal for the month so far, but Tuesday could bring that average up to normal.



For those curious about the windy day on Saturday the Richmond Beach station recorded a gust of 23mph. The forecasted winds were for gusts up to 30mph possible for Saturday afternoon.


For current weather conditions visit www.ShorelineWeather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Dry weather on the way, September review

Monday, October 8, 2018

N 185th St looking west towards Ashworth Ave N.
Photo by Lee Lageschulte


Forecast: One more day of rain showers, then we get a break as high pressure moves in from Tuesday afternoon through the weekend. We are expecting morning clouds and fog in places before we clear out to sunny skies Wednesday through early next week.

Temperatures will range in the lower to mid 40's for lows and 60-65°F for high temperatures Tuesday through Sunday. Longer range forecasts indicate the sunny weather should last us through the middle of next week.

September review: September overall was very normal, very close to average in temperature and rainfall. This is the first time we've had an entire month run at or below normal in temperature since February.


Rainfall for the month was slightly below normal, but I think well within normal variability for this time of year.


Wind gusts, now reported at the new Richmond Beach Station, probably typical but this is the first month of data for our area on wind. We had a couple days with winds gusting to almost 30mph, one gust to 28.8mph on September 16th, another gust up to 27.6mph on September 22nd during the convergence zone storm. September 22nd was also our wettest day at a total rainfall of 0.86 inches.


Readers have already started asking me if it's going to snow this winter. There's talk of a possible weak El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific this winter. It's not a full blown El Niño, it's something called an El Niño Modoki, where only the Niño 3.4 region (central tropical Pacific) develops warmer than normal sea surface temperature conditions.

Right now I do not expect this to change our fall or early winter weather much from normal. This ocean pattern typically only affects weather patterns later in the winter, typically January through March. After the New Year the El Niño might bring us some warmer than normal temperatures, but not always.

Typically during previous winters of this set up, wind storms have been likely, especially in December and January. Lowland snow events have been basically equal chance compared to neutral winters. We could see some lowland snow, especially before January, but we could also have a no-snow winter.

If you want to compare the possible winter outlook to a previous winter, the 2006-2007 winter season was similar set up as what is being forecasted this winter. I'll be able to provide a better picture of a winter outlook after Halloween.


For current weather conditions visit www.ShorelineWeather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Strong breezy weather Tuesday

Monday, October 1, 2018

National Weather Service in Seattle

A significant change in the forecast for Tuesday this week. A stronger weather system than we are used to seeing is moving through the region from the northwest. Winds are expected to become quite breezy, gusting up to 35mph. As the storm passes, heading south, the winds will change from southerly to northerly.

Many trees in this area, especially in recent years, are not used to the northerly direction of strong winds. Also consider that most trees are still holding onto summer foliage, so the wind will put them under more stress than normal as the foliage will turn limbs into wind sails.

Scattered local power outages are possible with this fall storm, as well as some downed tree limbs. Some weak trees could even fall over. The winds will not be strong enough to prompt a wind advisory or high wind warning.

The remainder of the week remains to be the same forecast I wrote in last nights report.


For current weather conditions and particularly if you're looking for wind speeds, check out the new Richmond Beach station on my website:



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WeatherWatcher: Fall Showers

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Fall ferns
Photo by Frank Kleyn
Forecast: Fall showers have returned this weekend and are expected to continue off and on through the next 7-10 days.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal and trend slightly cooler than normal Tuesday and beyond.

We have a series of weak cold fronts expected to move through the area throughout the week.

Wednesday a weak ridge is expected to develop, which should be our driest day of the week.

Temperatures Monday and Tuesday are expected to be near the mid 60's, Wednesday through Saturday down towards the lower 60's.

Lows are expected to be in the low 50's early and then down to the upper 40's later in the week.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, less than a tenth of an inch for the entire week.



For current weather conditions visit www.ShorelineWeather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Unlike last week, calm weather ahead

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Heavy rain November 2012
Photo by James Wiswell

Last week we had some weather, with a couple of windy periods. and then some heavy rain showers.

I'm going to start with the wind. Our new Richmond Beach station is doing a very nice job at recording our wind gusts. Below is the 24 hour graph of Sunday September 16th where we had a wind gust of 29mph.



We had more wind overnight Friday into Saturday morning September 21-22, gusting up to 28mph.

These winds came in behind a cold front that passed through Friday evening. In the wake of that same cold front Saturday afternoon, an unexpected development happened. An extremely strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone developed over Everett at about 3pm, producing a very heavy band of rain. As the evening progressed this Convergence Zone event drifted south getting into Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

At the height of this Convergence Zone, cloud tops exceeded 30,000 feet and there were some lighting strikes in Snohomish County. In the image below you can see Seattle just south of the green and yellow blobs. Those yellow spots are centered over Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The red spots north of Duvall are likely some of the lightening producing showers that we may have heard thunder from.

Radar image September 22nd at 5:30pm Pacific
Image from National Weather Service


Everett received 1.63 inches of rain, while Shoreline near Richmond Beach received 1.05 inches of rain, and east in the Echo Lake neighborhood we received 0.83 inches of rain. The bulk of this rainfall occurred in about an hour and a half, starting at about 5:20pm and ending shortly after 7pm. This Convergence Zone was one of the more intense events I've witnessed here in the last 25 years.

Sea-Tac, where official records are kept for the greater Seattle area, was not impacted by this heavy rain fall. September will likely go down as drier than normal for the rest of the region while we are right at about normal here.

Rainfall for the month of September 2018

Temperatures remained at about normal if not slightly below normal last week as well. The remainder of the month may be slightly above normal so I expect that we will end the month at normal temperatures and normal rainfall by average.




Forecast: Much calmer weather ahead as the upper atmosphere circulation switches into a stable blocking pattern, sending storms well north into Alaska. We are expecting to have sunny and clear skies all the way into next weekend where Saturday evening right now appears to have our next slim chance at any showers. Temperatures all week are expected to reach the upper 60's to low 70's with lows near 50°F.


For current weather conditions visit the new and improved
www.ShorelineWeather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Normal temperatures, showers, and some sun early in the week

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Rain in Ballinger Commons November 2011
Photo by Carl Dinse

Our longest streak since last June of below average temperatures continued this past week. We've had some hit and miss showers moving through the area generally all week.

Here's the temperature graph so far for the month:


Rain accumulation hasn't been too significant so far -- well below the average -- but the second half of the month could make up for it still.


For our forecast: The showers are expected to continue Sunday into Monday morning. There is even a slight chance of a thundershower during the afternoon and evening Sunday.

Monday - Wednesday we are expecting cloudy mornings to give way to sunny afternoons with temperatures reaching the mid-upper 60's. Clouds and showers return for Thursday through next weekend. Highs in the 60's and lows in the lower to mid 50's all week.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: New Weather Station, Taste of Fall Weather

Sunday, September 9, 2018


I'd like to announce an addition to my weather website. By popular request I have found a way to get a weather station set up in the Richmond Beach neighborhood of Shoreline. The new station has been in beta testing since the last week of July 2018. It is performing very well, particularly with wind speed and direction and I hope to use this station as our official peak wind gust site.

Many readers have often asked how different the weather is near the Puget Sound compared to areas away from the Puget Sound. Summertime days seem to show the clearest difference, especially on days reaching the upper 80's or into the 90's. Temperatures near the water appear to be a little cooler, sometimes by up to 5-7°F. This winter could likely reveal other differences as well.

I've updated my website to show the two weather stations side by side for an easy comparison. Both stations are also live on Weather Underground's personal weather station website.  I have also added a live feed to the website to show current watches, warnings and advisories issued by the National Weather Service in Seattle. It should display any warnings, watches or advisories that are in effect for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Links have moved to the main webpage and are no longer on a separate links page.

Forecast: We have a period of very fall-like weather ahead for the next week and beyond. The weather pattern has changed in a way where we are seeing Pacific frontal systems move through the region now. That means much needed rainfall is expected, and has occurred which should help knock down our wildfires.

Monday-Friday: Temperatures expected to reach the upper 60's to near 70 each day, with lows in the low to mid 50's at night. Monday we are expecting showers and mostly cloudy skies. Tuesday and Tuesday evening there is a slight chance of some thunderstorms as more unstable air moves through the area. A chance of showers stays with us through Friday afternoon. Total rain fall amounts this week could be between 0.15 inches up to a half inch or more.

Next weekend: Skies start clearing up a little with sunshine and temperatures near or a little above the 70°F mark.

This month's temperature is hovering near normal. We had some warm days on the 4th and 5th. Below is the high and low temperature graph:




For current weather conditions visit my re-modeled website at www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: This week in weather history, forecast for calm seasonal weather

Sunday, September 2, 2018

Wind Damage at N 200th St and Dayton Ave N on August 29, 2015
Photo by Carl Dinse

On this week in weather history, August 29, 2015, a rare August windstorm hit the region with winds gusting to near 60mph between 11am and 2pm. The photo above was one of many examples from around the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park area of the widespread damage. I talked about the storm in this article on August 30, 2015.

The photo below is another example of the tree damage from that storm. When we get a storm like that out of season there is typically more tree damage than normal because everything is generally really dry and brittle. This photo was taken looking south on 7th Ave NE, from NE 195th St.

Tree limbs cover the roads in many areas on August 29, 2015.
Photo by Carl Dinse

As of 5:32pm power outages were widespread even several hours after the strongest winds had died down.


Forecast: We have a northwest onshore flow typical for this time of year, which will keep the wildfire smoke out and temperatures seasonal. Temperatures are expected to reach near or just above 70°F all week, with the exception of Wednesday which could reach the mid-upper 70's. Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 50's all week and next weekend.

The marine onshore flow could be strong enough to bring morning drizzle or rain showers Monday morning, and again Thursday and Friday mornings. Overall, a very pleasant week ahead for us. This weather should continue through next weekend as well.

Here is our temperature graph for the month of August. You can see we pretty much returned to normal temperatures as we ended the month.



For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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Weather Watcher: Cool weather, then back to seasonal temperatures, smoke to linger

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Photo by Ed Cruver

You may have noticed temperatures on Saturday were much colder than we are used to. My Shoreline station topped out at 61.5°F for the day. We have a cool northwest flow influencing the weather through Monday. The northwest and north winds are bringing the smoke from the major wildfires in Vancouver Island and the interior of British Columbia down into our region through Tuesday.

Tuesday the weather is expected to warm up to 75°F or near 80°F. I'm leaning towards 75°F because of the layer of smoke we are expected to have in the area will block out some of the heat from the sun. Wednesday through next weekend temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the 50's.

During mornings with low clouds when the marine onshore flow is stronger we can expect to see spotty drizzle or sprinkles in the area, just enough to get the ground wet. No significant amounts of precipitation are expected.

Here's the daily high and low temperatures for August so far. You can see the nose dive in temperatures on Saturday.


We can expect to see areas of smoke or haze for the next week or two at the least -- probably until major rain events return in late September or October. Until then a good place to check the outdoor air quality is the State of Washington Department of Ecology Air Quality website. This page has a map of the air quality monitoring stations. We happen to have an air quality station at the Lake Forest Park town center. These stations update once every 4 hours or so but you can see what time the last update was by hovering your mouse over the dot on the map.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Stage 1 burn ban issued, air quality alert, smoke to start leaving Thursday

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Where's the Puget Sound and the Olympics? Smoke filled skies at Richmond Beach.
Photo by Frank Kleyn

Monday August 20, 2018 at 5pm the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency issued a Stage 1 burn ban. This is typically a burn ban issued during winter months for air quality. For the same reason they have issued one today, which will be in effect until conditions improve. This burn ban is in addition to the current fire safety burn bans already in effect.

During the Stage 1 burn ban:
  • No charcoal barbecues or similar solid fuel devices
  • No campfires or bonfires
  • No fire pits, chimineas, fire bowls, or similar free-standing devices
  • No fireplaces, uncertified wood stoves or uncertified inserts
  • No agricultural fires
It is okay to use natural gas or propane grills, stoves, or inserts during a Stage 1 burn ban.

An air quality alert continues for the entire region issued by multiple agencies including the National Weather Service in Seattle. Unhealthy air has become common across the area due to wildfire smoke, the majority from Vancouver Island and the coastal mountains of British Columbia. Some of the smoke is also from a few large wildfires in the Cascade mountains and one smaller fire in the Olympic National Forest.

The air quality is in the unhealthy, very unhealthy and hazardous ranges for the region for all of the population, not just sensitive groups. The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency advises people to stay inside at all times, run air purifiers or have some form of filtered or closed recirculated air. You should not run a vacuum unless it has a HEPA (High-efficiency particulate absorber) filter in it.

Forecast: So when's all this smoke going to blow away? Most recent models indicate that for Seattle south, it will start clearing out Wednesday afternoon and be almost totally clear by Thursday morning at the surface. Seattle north (Shoreline, Lake Forest Park) shows some clearing but we really don't get to clear up until Thursday night and Friday morning.

Models are showing more smoke moving back in though Friday afternoon and evening. The smoke forecast models are experimental, and anything past 48 hours is getting to be a bit of a stretch for accuracy.

As for weather beyond the smoke, forecasts point to seasonal temperatures and smoke filtered sunny skies through next weekend. Highs topping out in the mid-upper 70's and lows in the 50's. Our clearest day is likely going to be Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

Here are the temperature graphs for the month so far. Would you believe it if I told you we have been running at seasonal temperatures since August 11th? It's our longest stretch at average or below average temperatures since June 14th.



For current weather conditions you can visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: More heat and smoke, then a cool down

Monday, August 13, 2018

Storm clouds over SW Shoreline Saturday
Photo by Gregg Haughian

We had several downpours move through the area Saturday, as forecasted. There were even some thunderstorms but they missed Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. Shoreline ranged from 0.28 inches of rain near Richmond Beach to around 0.18 inches of rain towards I-5 at my weather station.

This week the wildfire smoke haze returns, and along with it more above normal heat. Temperatures are expected to range in the low-mid 80's most of the week with lows near either side of 60°F.

Tuesday is the exception with a high temperature expected to possibly reach the low 90's once again. The smokey, warm and otherwise sunny weather at this time is expected to last through next weekend.

Here are the temperature graphs for high and low temperatures for August so far. Only August 2nd, 3rd, and 4th were cool enough to fit in the realm of average temperature for this time of year.



For current weather conditions visit 

P.S. Can you see the jet flying through the clouds?



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WeatherWatcher: Brief cool down with a possible thunderstorm, then more heat

Thursday, August 9, 2018

Photo by Carl Dinse

We have a brief cool down starting Friday as a weak Pacific storm moves through the region. We will still be in the 80's Friday afternoon, but cooling will begin in the evening hours. Clouds will start rolling in with a slight chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday showers are likely in the morning and afternoon. With the showers there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. We could see between a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall, or more if there is a thunderstorm. The best part, temperatures will only reach the low 70's.

Sunday things clear up with sunny skies and highs climbing near 80 again. Beginning of next week looks like we are going back to warmer than normal weather, highs in the mid-upper 80's.

How hot have we been this week?
  • Monday: 84.7°F
  • Tuesday: 89.2°F
  • Wednesday: 91.9°F
  • Thursday: 89.2°F

Long range forecasts still point to a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures for the next month, but near normal precipitation. Perhaps we'll get breaks from the heat waves with more storms as the month progresses.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: Heat and Smoke to return this week

Sunday, August 5, 2018

Smokey Sun above the Olympics August 11, 2014.
Photo by Carl Dinse

The heat and smokey skies are expected to return in the middle of the week. This heat wave should be short-lived compared to our last one. Sunny skies and clear nights are expected most of the week.

Monday-Tuesday highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80's. Wednesday - Thursday highs are expected to be in the mid 80's to near 90°F, with areas of smoke. We start cooling down on Friday, with highs making it to the low-mid 80's.

Friday evening some moisture approaches with cooling temperatures and possible showers. Next weekend looks pleasant with morning clouds and possible showers or drizzle, clearing to sunny skies and highs in the 70's.

July was indeed warmer and drier than normal for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. We had about half the normal rainfall, but for July this is pretty variable anyway given we typically dry up for the summer. Most precipitation comes from either morning drizzle or the rare thunderstorm.

Our average temperature for the month of July was 68.3°F, the station's overall average is 63.5°F so we were nearly 5°F above normal. Below are the high and low temperatures graphed for the month compared to the average.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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WeatherWatcher: 9th Anniversary of the Lake Ballinger Edmount Island Fire

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Edmount Island from 1st Ave NE on July 29, 2009. Photo by Carl Dinse

On this day in weather history, July 29, 2009, we had an all time record high temperature of 103.4°F,  measured at Sea-Tac and at my own weather station located in Shoreline's Echo Lake neighborhood. On that same evening an illegal barbecue left abandoned on Edmount Island in the middle of Lake Ballinger set the vegetation and soil on fire.

The island is a peat bog -- difficult to control fires on -- especially when the peat catches on fire. Fire fighters had to set up floating water pumps to pump lake water onto the island for over a week before the fire was finally extinguished on August 6, 2009.

Two years later I photographed the island to show how much of the vegetation was lost to the wildfire. We also did a report on it which can be found here.

Edmount Island from 1st AVE NE on August 10th, 2011. Photo by Carl Dinse

For the 9th Anniversary I decided to go take a new photo of the island to compare to see how much it has recovered from this fire nine years ago.

Edmount Island from 1st Ave NE on July 29, 2018. Photo by Carl Dinse


Notice how in each photo, the sky is this brownish grey color? Most summers by this time show the evidence of wildfire season with smoke in the atmosphere from distant wildfires. This year a lot of the smoke appears to be from wildfires burning in Eurasia, Siberia, Alaska and British Columbia.

As we cool down later Tuesday and Wednesday the marine air flow should help clear out this wildfire smoke in the Puget Sound region. At this time longer range forecasts are calling for near normal temperatures for the next week or two, which should be a big relief from all the heat these last two weeks.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com



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