Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weatherwatcher. Show all posts

WeatherWatcher: Wildfire Smoke Season arrives, but should be short lived

Saturday, September 7, 2024

 

Friday September 6, 2024 True Color Satellite imagery from the UW department of Atmospheric Science

As you may have noticed yesterday and today, the sky is hazy, sunrises and sunsets were very red and dim, and it's quite warm. The above visible color satellite image from Friday afternoon shows all the hazy smoke covering the Pacific Northwest. 

We have a heat advisory in place that expires at 11pm Friday evening. The heat and smoke are the result of south-easterly winds. These winds are bringing the warmth and wildfire smoke over the mountains from central and eastern Oregon.

Below is an image from Wednesday where I've highlighted the two major sources of wildfire smoke in Oregon, and a third much smaller source of wildfire smoke in Washington.

Satellite image from Wednesday September 4, 2024 at 5:30pm PDT.
Image from the UW department of Atmospheric Science.

Conditions over central Oregon were favorable mid-week for wildfire activity to explode. It seems to have calmed down today significantly but all that smoke is circulating aloft now. Heating during the day today and this weekend is expected to cause some of that smoke to mix down to the surface.

Air quality as of Friday afternoon was just barely into moderate territory but is expected to get a little bit worse possibly through Friday evening and Saturday.

Lake Forest Park Town Center air quality from the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

Forecast: On-shore winds will start to pick up overnight into Saturday morning, but weak at first. These winds should start slowly bringing cooler and cleaner air into the Puget Sound region through the weekend. We should be back to normal with all the smoke cleared out between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. 

Morning clouds, afternoon sun, and temperatures back down to seasonal normal with highs near 70°F should also return by Monday. There is even a threat of some rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday. We bring back sunny skies Thursday and Friday to end the week.


For current weather conditions please visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Thunderstorms leave behind a trail of scattered power outages and small tree limbs

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Sunday's storm
Photo by Jan Hansen

This was probably one of the best forecasted thunderstorm outbreaks for this region. Overall Western Washington received around 3,300 lightning strikes. Rainfall in Shoreline and Lake Forest Park was a little variable by a tenth of an inch or two at various personal weather stations. Winds were also gusty as expected, leading to some power outages, whereas lightning caused some power outages as well.

At the Echo Lake/North Ridge station we recorded 0.92 inches of rain over Saturday and Sunday. No need to water the lawns for about a week now. Saturday was the bulk of the rain at 0.78 inches.

It was windy as well, with gusts Saturday night peaking around 30mph, and Sunday’s isolated storm at about 5pm had wind gusts recorded at 35mph but could have easily been stronger near the treetops. The isolated storm on Sunday also brought another round of scattered power outages.

We are not done with the potentially stormy weather. Monday brought us a little break with just a few light showers in the evening. The possibility of thunderstorms returns Tuesday afternoon and evening. This time around, the chance is down from 30% to only a slight chance.

The threat of some showers remains with us Wednesday, with another slight chance of a thunderstorm Wednesday evening. Chances of showers, but without thunderstorms, continues Thursday and into Saturday night. We start to dry out Sunday afternoon and evening with a return to normal sunny weather come next Monday.
 

For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

New power outages after isolated thunderstorm on Sunday afternoon

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Power outages as of 10pm Sunday August 18, 2024

75 customers are out of power in Shoreline Sunday evening after an isolated thunderstorm moved through the area around 5pm.

WeatherWatcher Carl Dinse reports that winds gusted to around 40mph, with some places as high as 45mph.

The top wind speed he was able to find inside Shoreline city limits was 35mph.


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening

Friday, August 16, 2024

 

From the archives: Lightning over Lake Washington from Log Boom Park
Photo by Carl Dinse, July 11, 2009

Every few summers we seem to get that one day, or night, or a week worth of active weather containing lightning in the area. 

The last major outbreak of lightning storms was September 7, 2019. This is typical weather for summers here in the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas. 

Sometimes we get it two or three years in a row and other times we go up to five years or so without one. Sometimes it is one evening and done, other times we get it spread out with breaks over the course of a week.

Starting Saturday afternoon or early evening, we will start a week of excitement in weather. Our biggest chance will be between 6pm and 11pm Saturday evening. Some showers and thunderstorms might still pop up overnight into Sunday morning. 

We also may see some windy conditions in isolated spots Saturday evening, with some isolated wind gusts that could reach up to 45mph, but it won't be a typical windstorm.

The winds will be short bursts, and isolated to thunderstorm activity areas. 

What can make them particularly damaging, though, is they can switch directions at any time and all our trees are in full summer foliage right now. I can't rule out scattered power outages with this event.

Once we get past the main event sometime Sunday morning, skies should start to clear. We'll be back to our normal sunny weather until Tuesday afternoon. 

Chances of showers return Tuesday afternoon and possibly a slight chance of thundershowers return Tuesday through Thursday. The threat of lightning in these showers should ease off completely by the end of next week.


For current weather conditions please visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

Cartoon by Whitney Potter AND Temperatures in Shoreline

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Cartoon by Whitney Potter

WeatherWatcher Carl Dinse reports that Shoreline had temperatures of: 
  • 97°F high temp for Northridge in central Shoreline 
  • 92°F in Richmond beach on Puget Sound. 
  • Both temperature peaked at 4pm.
Heat advisory was extended until 5pm Wednesday.

High temperatures Wednesday should be upper 70s to mid 80s.


Read more...

How hot was it?

Monday, July 8, 2024

Edmonds Beach photo by Lee Lageschulte

I checked in with WeatherWatcher Carl Dinse (see his weather report here) to see how hot it was in Shoreline this weekend.

He said that on Saturday, July 6, 2024, the temperature was 90° in his Northridge station in central Shoreline and 84° at his Richmond Beach station.

On Sunday, we hit 94° at Northridge and 88° at Richmond Beach.

At the beach, people were bringing tents and umbrellas to shelter themselves from direct sun, but enjoying the relatively cooler temperatures and breeze off the water.

Just after midnight on Monday, it was 74° in Northridge and 72° in Richmond Beach. Low temperatures will be bottoming out overnight into the mid 60’s so it will not cool down very much.

Monday will be basically a repeat of Sunday with maybe a degree or two warmer at the peak. Tuesday is going to be the hottest day this week, with mid 90’s expected.

Even when the heat advisory expires Tuesday night, we are still going to be pretty warm for the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s.

--Diane Hettrick with Carl Dinse


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Heat Advisory in effect, temperatures soaring to the upper 80's then lower 90s

Saturday, July 6, 2024

From the archives, warm day over Richmond Beach July 24, 2022.
Photo by Carl Dinse
National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a heat advisory, in effect until 10pm PDT Tuesday. A heat wave is bringing very warm temperatures for the Shoreline and Lake Forest Park areas as well as the greater Puget Sound region for the next several days. Generally, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80’s and low to mid 90’s Saturday through Tuesday next week. 

From the National Weather Service:

  • What: Hot conditions with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s expected. This will pose a moderate to major risk of heat-related illness.
  • Where: Portions of northwest and west central Washington.
  • When: Until 10pm PDT Tuesday.
  • Impacts: This level of heat will significantly increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for much of the population, especially those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling or adequate hydration.
  • Additional Details: Temperatures will gradually cool during the middle of next week but remain well above normal.

Forecast for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park: Sunny skies all week. There are no clouds or rain in this forecast. Saturday should reach a high temperature into the low to mid 80’s. Lows near 60°F. Sunday high temperatures will be well into the mid to upper 80’s. Sunday night low is also expected to be near 60°F.

Monday through Tuesday high temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90’s with low temperatures in the mid to lower 60’s.

Wednesday, we start cooling down into the mid 80’s, with high temperatures coming back down into the upper 70’s or just reaching 80°F Thursday and Friday.

To get relief from the heat without finding air conditioned spaces, your best bet is to get near a Puget Sound beach or take a trip over to the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures along the waters of Richmond Beach up north through Mukilteo and Everett are expected to be around 5 degrees cooler for up to about a half mile inland. 


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Slight chance of thunderstorms

Saturday, June 15, 2024

 
From the archives, Lightning at the view from Log Boom Park July 11, 2009
Photo by Carl Dinse

Forecast: Showery weather just in time for the weekend. Friday evening and early Saturday morning scattered showers are moving through with an ever so slight chance of a thunderstorm. 

Saturday as we get more energy from the sun through the afternoon our chances increase for more showers and scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 60’s. Rain showers and thunderstorms start to taper off by midnight Saturday night.

Sunday turns partly sunny, with a slight chance of some showers here and there. We begin to dry out Sunday evening. Temperatures get a little chilly Sunday night with lows down to the mid to upper 40’s.

As the saying goes, what do you call two days in a row of rain? A weekend in Seattle. Summer returns on Monday and lasts all the way through the entire week next week. High temperatures return to the 70’s with overnight lows in the low to mid 50’s.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Seemingly surprise windstorm strikes Lake Forest Park and Shoreline

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Tree down across NE 185th St at Ballinger Way in Lake Forest Park, WA.
Photo by Phyllis Johnson

By Carl Dinse

We had all this hype of record-breaking rain in the forecast, and instead we got a seemingly surprise windstorm. The National Weather Service had forecast models showing between 1 to 1.5 inches of rain for Lake Forest Park and Shoreline between Saturday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Little mention of wind however, and even mainstream media wasn’t mentioning anything about wind.

Strong winds arrived in the area from Seattle northward initially on Sunday evening. These winds did trigger a few scattered power outages in Snohomish County. A lot of unsecured objects were being blown around, as no one was expecting strong winds (including myself). 

Winds got strongest early Monday morning, long before the National Weather Service issued a wind advisory. The winds mellowed out a little to blustery/breezy conditions through most of the day Monday into Monday night. 

Tuesday morning was mostly calm until after around 11am when the wind advisory expired. Then winds picked up and at my Richmond Beach weather station we recorded nearly an all-time high gust of 35mph after 1pm. This was nearly 2 hours after the NWS wind advisory expired.

Tuesday afternoon winds were strong enough in Shoreline and Lake Forest Park to bring down tree limbs, and whole trees. Several trees were downed throughout the region on Monday and Tuesday. Lake Forest Park had one come down across NE 185th St at Ballinger Way. It snagged a vehicle that escaped with a cracked windshield, and took out major power lines, doing damage to at least one of the utility poles.

Paine Field in Everett showed similar patterns in the wind, strong on either side of the wind advisory but generally calm during the entirety of the advisory. 

Rain wasn’t the big story of this series of atmospheric rivers, it was the wind.

Overall, here are the storm statistics:
  • Sunday, June 2: 
    • Rain: 0.33 inches
    • Wind Gust: 28mph at Richmond Beach, 44mph at Paine Field in Everett
  • Monday, June 3:
    • Rain: 0.49 inches
    • Wind Gust: 29mph at Richmond Beach, 49mph at Paine Field in Everett
  • Tuesday, June 4:
    • Rain: 0.15 inches
    • Wind Gust: 35mph at Richmond Beach, 41mph at Paine Field in Everett

I use Paine Field in Everett for official wind data, as it is the closest, best wind measurement area to Lake Forest Park and Shoreline. The weather stations I operate in Shoreline are interfered with by tall Douglas firs which impact accuracy and ability to measure true peak wind speeds. Good wind measurement sites are difficult to find and very expensive within our cities.

The rainfall amount forecasted came in just under the forecasted amount at 0.97 inches total. Getting within 0.03 inches is pretty good. Our amount of rain was a lot lower than forecasted for Seattle (Sea-Tac) due to the Olympic Mountain rain shadow, but the shadow effect was very well forecasted.

Rainfall for June compared to average at the Northridge/Echo Lake weather station:

Windstorms are possible any time of year in this region, they are just rare between April and October. I don’t really put the rain event as out of the ordinary either. Some years June is very rainy, other years it's summer starting Memorial Day.

Sunny and seasonable weather is here now and expected to last for the next 7 days with temperatures in the 70’s. Saturday could be a little bit warmer, with Lake Forest Park and Shoreline in the upper 70’s, and possibly reaching into the low 80s. We return to the 70’s for high temperatures on Sunday and going on through next week. 


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

Geomagnetic storm fills the sky with color

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Stars can be seen through the colors

Photos by WeatherWatcher Carl Dinse

THE CME HAS ARRIVED: Arriving hours earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on May 10, 2024 at 1645 UT. 

The colors shift and change

The big impact sparked a severe (G4) geomagnetic storm -- ongoing now (midnight local time). More CMEs are following close behind, and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend. Follow this developing story @Spaceweather.com.


Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. 

They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. 


CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. 

Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet. --NOAA


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Finally some warm weather and sunshine

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Sunny Day photo by Carl Dinse

So the sunny sunshine started Tuesday, after a morning of alternating rain and sun. (If you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes). 

We are expecting a long overdue 5 day period of sunny skies, starting on Wednesday when temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 60’s. (Probably ok to plant your tomatoes now)

Thursday through Saturday we will have highs in the mid 70s, with Saturday getting to either side of 80°F. 

Then we go back down to the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday through Tuesday. 

Currently no rain in sight. (Don't forget to water your tomatoes)


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Forecast, returning to normal

Thursday, March 7, 2024

 

From the archives, August windstorm aftermath in 2015 over Puget Sound
Photo by Carl Dinse

Weather for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park is transitioning back to normal seasonal conditions on Friday. The upper-level weather pattern, known to most as the jet stream is moving back to our neck of woods to bring a series of Pacific storm fronts through the region. We are expected to warm up into the 40's and low 50's with the return of steady rain Friday evening and rain at times through the weekend.

Windy conditions are expected to arrive with Saturday's storm front, bringing wind gusts up to 35mph. We have another storm system moving in Sunday evening and into Monday. Tuesday becomes another transition day, this time into a warmer and drier pattern for a few days. 

Mid-week next week we should start feeling our first dose of early spring weather. Sunny skies are expected with temperatures approaching 60°F toward the end of next week. Another thing that will make later next week feel extra spring-like is our return to Daylight Saving Time. In about two weeks we'll be at nearly 12 hours of daylight, with an increase of 3 minutes or more each day. 

Longer range suggests the warmth and sun may not be so long lived, but we will cross that bridge when we get there.

For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com

Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Snow in the forecast for the next five days

Friday, March 1, 2024

 
From the archives, Snow February 11, 2019 by Shorewood.
Photo by Steven H. Robinson
Snow is back in the forecast, as mentioned in my previous weather reports this week. This weather pattern that is locking in for the next five days is bringing us a very cold upper atmosphere. There are a couple of small low-pressure systems that will swing by bringing us rounds of showers or steady precipitation.

We could see several rounds of snow accumulations, but it is not expected to stick to roadways in general. The accumulations we see are also not likely to survive daytime temperatures. Travel impacts are expected to be minimal, but it is possible for a passing shower to be heavy enough to turn roads white at times. 

Forecast: Pretty much is a showery pattern of rain or snow, or rain mixed with snow showers to be off and on from Friday morning all the way through next Wednesday. 

Snow levels are expected to vary between 300 feet and 1000 feet for the next five days. Showers could be strong enough to bring the snow level to the surface at times. Some of the showers could be thundershowers as well.

So far nothing major is in the weekend or next week beyond a hit or miss showery pattern. We could see some breezy periods as well with winds gusting up to 30 mph at times, especially in strong showers or thunderstorms.

Snow accumulations: The National Weather Service in Seattle is not expecting any snow accumulations. Many other models show several batches of 1-2 inches of accumulation intermittently through the weekend. Our best chances are Friday night into Saturday morning, and another round Sunday night into Monday.

Bottom line: This is a very early spring-like wet snow shower type of situation and is likely to only be exciting for a short time during some heavy showers. This forecast can easily change, so be sure to check back for updates. 
For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect Wednesday 4am to 7pm; Cold weather recap

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

 
Fir cone armageddon. Photo by Gordon Snyder
Sunday windstorm repeats on Wednesday. As of this writing, winds are already increasing in the region gusting up to 30mph. Temperatures are warming, and soon rain will be on the increase. Up to one inch of rain is possible through Wednesday with this incoming storm.

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory for Wednesday from 4am to 7pm PST. From the National Weather Service:
  • What: South winds 25 to 35mph with gusts up to 45mph expected.
  • Where: Tacoma area, Hood Canal area, Seattle and vicinity and Bremerton and vicinity.
  • When: From 4am to 7pm PST Wednesday.
  • Impacts: Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  • Precautionary/Preparedness actions: Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
The wind advisory for the Everett area including Edmonds forecasts wind gusts up to 50mph. I can't rule that out for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park, so I anticipate winds just as strong or slightly stronger than last Sunday's windstorm.

Our warmup with rain Wednesday will be short-lived. Behind this storm is another cold front that will bring snow levels down to the 500 foot or sea-level range again. Thursday night through the end of the weekend we'll be flirting with freezing temperatures overnight, and spotty precipitation in the form of rain or snow. If things are timed and located just right, we could get 1-3 inches of snow accumulation, which could be Shoreline's first significant snow event of the winter.

Monday evening and Tuesday morning, as expected, a narrow convergence zone band did develop over Snohomish County, from Whidbey Island spreading mostly east, southeast through Everett, Snohomish and up the State Route 2 corridor towards Stevens Pass. 

Shoreline and Lake Forest Park received very limited flurries from the southern edge of this convergence zone to the tune of about one snowflake per square inch of accumulation. The south half of Everett saw accumulations this morning on just either side of 5 inches. 

At this point it has snowed and accumulated significantly south of Shoreline/LFP, north of Shoreline/LFP, and east of Shoreline/LFP this winter. Odds are in favor of the next chances of lowland snow getting Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. I'll post an update on the forecast tomorrow evening to see if we have better forecasts for where the snow will hit.

For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com

Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Windy day and Snow on the way

Sunday, February 25, 2024

 

From the archives, wet snow in Shoreline on April 18, 2008.
Photo by Carl Dinse
Sunday's windstorm wasn't strong enough to issue any advisories or warnings for the area. We did receive gusts on average to 30-33mph as forecasted by the National Weather Service in Seattle. Some exposed spots got up to 43mph along the Puget Sound in Richmond Beach. Paine Field in southwest Everett also recorded a gust of 45mph at 2:21 PM. I prefer to use Paine Field as an official reference because it is located much closer to Shoreline and Lake Forest Park (~10 miles) than SeaTac airport which is around 26 miles away.

Sunday's windstorm is the warmup before the cold arrives. Behind this windstorm is a bunch of cold air over the northeast Pacific Ocean moving southwest down the coast through Washington State tonight. This air is cold enough to set us back into more of a winter climate for a week.

Forecast: Winds are expected to ease Sunday evening as cold air starts to take over. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 30's with precipitation in the area. Overnight into Monday morning temperatures could cool enough to bring the snow level down to about 500 feet or lower. 

Monday morning, expect rain or snow showers, or a mixture of both. The showers are expected to continue through Monday afternoon and evening. After midnight Monday night the snow level is expected to come down to sea-level with all showers falling in the form of snow. Tuesday will be more of the same, with a chance of snow showers, mixing with rain or changing over to rain during the afternoon hours.

Accumulations for Monday and Tuesday are expected to be minimal, except where the convergence zone forms, which could be anywhere from just north of Everett all the way to Downtown Seattle. Areas under the convergence zone could get a quick 1-4 inches of snow before it melts off Wednesday. 

Current forecast models show the convergence zone forecasted for South Everett into north Lynnwood but those are difficult to predict even with today's models. Most of the snow fall is expected between Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Another windstorm is expected Wednesday, giving us a brief break in the wintery temperatures with highs going up towards 50°F. Rain is expected as well with this windstorm, with rain lasting into Wednesday night and continuing Thursday. Cooler air returns overnight Thursday into Friday morning with another threat of lowland snow to follow. The second round of cold air is expected to last through the weekend.

Details for the cold and snow next Friday are fuzzy right now, too far away to get an accurate forecast still. Friday's forecast though has been looking more and more like our best chance so far this winter at accumulating lowland snow. I'll be watching the forecasts closely and provide an update as we get closer.


For current weather conditions visit: www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Will it snow Thursday morning? Yes, but probably minor or no accumulations

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

 
Low temperature expected Thursday Morning by the National Weather Service
Some cold air is passing through the gaps in the Cascade Mountain range and the threat of mixed winter precipitation has returned. Some models say snow, others say a mix, and some say rain. The forecast is marginal on the freezing mark, and as always it seems with snow forecasts around here, uncertain.

For Shoreline and Lake Forest Park, the National Weather Service forecast is calling for snow, or rain and snow mixed late Wednesday night and Thursday. Most models show the bulk of the precipitation to be between 3am and 11am Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to be between 31°F and 37°F during this time.

This is a marginal event. In the coldest scenario we could see a trace to 2 inches of snow, but the more likely outcome from this event is snowfall but no accumulation. There might be some slushy accumulations on lawns and other unpaved surfaces for a short time.

The daytime temperature Thursday is expected to reach 42°F after the precipitation stops, which should melt off any accumulated snowfall we get. We have clearing Thursday evening and overnight into Friday. Temperatures overnight into Friday morning will likely dip down to the freezing mark but we begin to moderate through the weekend.

The weekend forecast looks rainy, with high temperatures near 50°F and lows near 40°F. The first half of next week looks like our typical late February weather of cloudy days with a chance of rain each day. We will quickly look back on this forecast as another near miss with snow this winter, as is somewhat typical during moderate to strong El Niño winters.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Cold Snap recap and almost spring-like rain ahead

Sunday, January 28, 2024

 
Ducks walking on water, actually ice at Log Boom Park, January 15, 2024
Photo by Gordon Snyder

Cold Snap Recap: We experienced a very cold period in Shoreline and Lake Forest Park. The Northridge (Echo Lake) weather station recorded a low temperature of 11.5°F at the coldest point on Saturday morning January 13, 2024. 

Saturday was also our coldest daytime high temperature since December 29, 1990. Our high temperature on Saturday January 13th was 22.8°F, which basically tied with November 23, 2010, where we had a high temperature of 23.0°F.

The difference with this cold snap compared to November 2010, or December 1990, is it arrived without any measurable snowfall. 

Some spots got a dusting to a trace but the air that moved in afterwards was so dry that most of the accumulated snowfall evaporated, in a rare process called sublimation

Our dew points were in the single digits during the cold snap, which is also why there wasn't widespread frost forming.

Here are the daily high and low temperatures for January from the Northridge (Echo Lake) weather station.

Daily high and low temperatures January 2024 at Northridge

Much warmer air has arrived, in fact, unusually warm air. We are running into the mid to upper 50's now for high temperatures as a series of atmospheric rivers move through the state. 

We haven't really seen much of an El Niño pattern this winter, but this week is probably the closest we'll see as the El Niño is quickly fading out now.

Rainfall at Northridge weather station, January 2024.

We are far above normal for rainfall this month, and for the rain season in general. 

Higher than normal rainfall is not typical of an El Niño winter. With the forecast for this coming week we will likely break the 6-inch mark in total rainfall for January. Our average rainfall for January is about 4 and a half inches.

Forecast: A series of atmospheric rivers is expected to continue moving through our region over the next five days. 

For Monday and Tuesday, they will remain just offshore, bringing us very mild temperatures as southerly winds bring California air to our region. High temperatures could reach the mid 60s Monday, and low 60s on Tuesday.

We will get brushed by some rain overnight Monday into Tuesday. 

Then more steady rain moves in Tuesday evening and continues through Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm but will likely drop into the mid to upper 50s for daytime highs.

Thursday evening the steady rain leaves the area, and we go to just showers here and there. 

Friday through the weekend we have a bit of a pattern change where we just have a chance of showers here and there, and temperatures returning to more seasonable levels. 

By Saturday and Sunday, we should be back into the mid 30s for lows and low 40s for high temperatures.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com

Read more...

WeatherWatcher: The transition to above freezing

Monday, January 15, 2024

Patchy ice forming on Lake Washington at Log Boom Park
Photo by Gordon Snyder

Tuesday, or more specifically Tuesday night we will begin the transition back to the normal 40°F rainy, more typical winter weather. 

The storm track is switching back to a southwest pattern over our region and will begin to bring the Pacific storm train with the first one arriving Tuesday evening.

There is a lot of cold air in place, so much so that our first storm may start as snow, freezing rain or a mixture of both. The American forecast model says snow, but the European model says freezing rain or rain. Some uncertainty of course, but I suspect we will be closer to the freezing rain or just the normal rain side of the story.

According to the latest forecasts, precipitation is not expected to arrive until around 10-11pm Tuesday night. So thankfully this shouldn't be messing up any Tuesday evening commutes. 

Most models show a change to above freezing temperatures by Wednesday morning but some models show the freezing temperatures holding on until as late as Wednesday night. Depending on how this transition goes, it could make for a very messy Wednesday.

For the remainder of the week, we continue to hover around or just above freezing with rain showers expected, maybe some snow mixing in at times during overnight hours until Friday. 

Friday through next weekend we really warm up into the mid to upper 40's for highs. Once we reach Friday the threat of any freezing precipitation should be gone and remain gone generally for the remainder of January.

A more active weather pattern is expected through the end of the month with a series of cold fronts moving through, bringing rain at times, and we can't rule out a windstorm during this next period. 

As we get closer to the second week of February, some early indications point to a possible second cold outbreak, though probably not as cold or as long lasting as this one was.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: The cold is here, coldest air since December 21, 1990

Saturday, January 13, 2024

 

Band of clouds in the weak convergence band on the leading edge of the modified arctic front.
January 11, 2024, photo by Gordon Snyder

Thursday afternoon, as arctic air surged out of Canada, a leading convergence band of clouds and snow showers in a northwest to southeast line developed near Marysville and slowly moved south. 

Initially passing through Everett and south Snohomish County, it then moved into Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, and other east side communities such as Kenmore and Kirkland. Some of the showers made it past downtown Seattle and Bellevue before drying out.

The arctic air is here now, and it has turned out to be the coldest arctic air our region has seen since December 21, 1990, where we had a daytime high temperature of 14°F. 

Our high temperature on Friday was set at midnight at 25°F. Later Friday morning about an hour after sunrise our low temperature was set at 13°F, only to rise in the daytime hours to 18°F before the sunset. 

Another interesting thing that happened Friday is sublimation. The small amount of snow that accumulated in the area started to evaporate. This arctic air mass is very dry, with dew points in the single digits. When you have very dry air, snow and ice can transition directly from a solid state into water vapor. 

I observed an icicle do this in my back yard. Instead of melting, it evaporated slowly throughout the day with no visible liquid water. The evaporation started during the overnight hours Friday morning.

What's ahead:
Saturday could be an even colder day yet; we are looking at low temperatures into the low teens or possibly single digits (if you're away from the Puget Sound or Lake Washington.) Daytime high temperatures may once again not make it past the 20°F mark. 

Some clouds are possible on Saturday and maybe even a stray flurry as a storm passes us to the south. Portland, Oregon is expected to get the bulk of that snowstorm. 

That said, there still has been a lot of change in the forecast so uncertainty remains. There is an extremely slight chance that we might see a snowfall Saturday or Saturday night.

Sunday is expected to be sunny and cold, but temperatures are expected to come up a little bit and bring us into the low to mid 20's for a high temperature. Lows will be dipping down into the upper teens or low 20's Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday are expected be mostly clear and sunny as well with each day getting a little bit warmer. 

Our next Pacific storm approaches Tuesday afternoon and evening, and there is a lot of disagreement how that will start out. 

I will do another update on Monday, but at this time forecasts are leaning towards a snowy start with an eventual transition to above freezing temperatures and rain by Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.


For current weather conditions in Shoreline visit www.shorelineweather.com


Read more...

WeatherWatcher: Snow forecast still uncertain but cold is certain

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

 

Dusting of snow in Lake Forest Park, November 30, 2014
Photo by Carl Dinse

A dusting of snow might be all we see in the next few days, but a looming storm this weekend could change that story come Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Cold air is starting to slowly make its way into our region bringing temperatures down to the marginal range of freezing. Showers are still around and are expected to continue through Friday. For Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, we could see some convergence zone activity develop and bring us some rain, snow, or a mixture of both. If we see a heavier shower, it could bring us an accumulation of snow to the tune of a trace to an inch or two.

Beyond Wednesday evening, well things are still quite uncertain at that point. There has not been a lot of forecast model agreement on what comes next. I was hoping by this evening we would have a better idea, but all that is certain is that we are going to get an arctic air mass over the region. Friday through Sunday daytime temperatures will remain in the upper 20's to 30's, depending on how far west the cold air travels.

A series of storms is expected to move ashore beginning Friday, but how far south is the question. Most models now indicate that this will be a big snow event for Portland, leaving the greater Seattle area cold and dry. One model, the American GFS - this is the one I have a hard time trusting - has the storm track further north putting the Puget Sound in a heavy blanket of snow.

Bottom line: I will provide updated forecasts as needed, but now would be a good time to make sure everything is winterized and ready for a freeze and snowfall. There is potential but not a significant chance yet of heavier snowstorms (beyond just a few scattered snow showers) to move in on Friday through Sunday. 

Still way too early and uncertain to talk about any accumulations for the weekend. For the remainder of the week, we could see nothing or up to a couple of inches here and there. Daytime temperatures may be warm enough though to melt off accumulations in the afternoon hours, but anything left over will freeze overnight.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




Read more...
ShorelineAreaNews.com
Facebook: Shoreline Area News
Twitter: @ShorelineArea
Daily Email edition (don't forget to respond to the Follow.it email)

  © Blogger template The Professional Template II by Ourblogtemplates.com 2009

Back to TOP