Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts

UW Med: A fall expert’s tips to avoid falls on ice

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Dr. Elizabeth Phelan, Medical Director of the 
Fall Prevention Clinic at UW Med
Dr. Elizabeth Phelan, professor of gerontology and geriatric medicine and medical director of the Fall Prevention Clinic at Harborview Medical Center, says ice and snow really level the playing field: People of all ages are equally prone to fall.

Falling on an icy surface can result in a range of injuries including ligament and tendon tears, broken bones and concussions.

“Research out of Nordic countries and the UK shows that there's double to triple the number of emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to falls from ice and snow,” Phelan said. 

This is the case even when a person has good balance so carefully consider whether it’s necessary to venture out in icy conditions.

“If people are having difficulty recovering from a fall, that is something they should speak with their healthcare providers about,” she added.

If you must walk outdoors when it’s icy, here are tips for traversing icy conditions safely:
  • Wear slip-resistant footwear that can reduce fall injuries by approximately 60%.
  • Keep your hands free and out of your pockets in case you need to balance or brace yourself.
  • Limit the number of items you’re carrying to ensure better balance.
  • Avoid looking at your phone while walking.

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Hummingbird feeder alert: birds can't drink frozen juice

Saturday, January 13, 2024

By Gordon Snyder

I’m a hummingbird fan. I love watching and photographing them.

We have had feeders in the front and back yards for years. When it’s very cold like now, our resident hummers are dependent on us keeping their feeders thawed out. They can’t drink frozen juice.


Photo by Gordon Snyder
As soon as I hung this thawed feeder, I got a quick "Thank You Look” from this Anna's Hummingbird.

Notice the feathers are fluffed to make the warmest down coat. He was even flying around the feeder all puffed up to stay warm as possible.

Heated hummingbird feeder
Photo by Gordon Snyder
Next, I set up a heated hummingbird feeder and within seconds a Boss was guarding it selfishly.

All our hummingbird feeders were frozen solid from this cold front. To thaw them out, put them in a sink or container because they will leak sugar water as they warm.

As the warmed feeders were rehung, they were in high demand. But as usual, the hummers began setting territories. Our Anna’s Hummingbirds don’t share…

Thaw feeders in a sink because they will leak suger water as they warm.
Photo by Gordon Snyder
After thawing out and setting up a couple more feeders, the Anna's managed to share. But only between flights chasing each other away from “their” feeder. Then, during the chase, another one snuck in and filled its belly.

Please, it’s going to be cold for the next several days and nights. If you have hummingbird feeders, bring them inside at night. Then, put them outside in the morning.

The hummers will be waiting for you. You will bring joy to them and yourself.


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WeatherWatcher: The cold is here, coldest air since December 21, 1990

 

Band of clouds in the weak convergence band on the leading edge of the modified arctic front.
January 11, 2024, photo by Gordon Snyder

Thursday afternoon, as arctic air surged out of Canada, a leading convergence band of clouds and snow showers in a northwest to southeast line developed near Marysville and slowly moved south. 

Initially passing through Everett and south Snohomish County, it then moved into Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, and other east side communities such as Kenmore and Kirkland. Some of the showers made it past downtown Seattle and Bellevue before drying out.

The arctic air is here now, and it has turned out to be the coldest arctic air our region has seen since December 21, 1990, where we had a daytime high temperature of 14°F. 

Our high temperature on Friday was set at midnight at 25°F. Later Friday morning about an hour after sunrise our low temperature was set at 13°F, only to rise in the daytime hours to 18°F before the sunset. 

Another interesting thing that happened Friday is sublimation. The small amount of snow that accumulated in the area started to evaporate. This arctic air mass is very dry, with dew points in the single digits. When you have very dry air, snow and ice can transition directly from a solid state into water vapor. 

I observed an icicle do this in my back yard. Instead of melting, it evaporated slowly throughout the day with no visible liquid water. The evaporation started during the overnight hours Friday morning.

What's ahead:
Saturday could be an even colder day yet; we are looking at low temperatures into the low teens or possibly single digits (if you're away from the Puget Sound or Lake Washington.) Daytime high temperatures may once again not make it past the 20°F mark. 

Some clouds are possible on Saturday and maybe even a stray flurry as a storm passes us to the south. Portland, Oregon is expected to get the bulk of that snowstorm. 

That said, there still has been a lot of change in the forecast so uncertainty remains. There is an extremely slight chance that we might see a snowfall Saturday or Saturday night.

Sunday is expected to be sunny and cold, but temperatures are expected to come up a little bit and bring us into the low to mid 20's for a high temperature. Lows will be dipping down into the upper teens or low 20's Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday are expected be mostly clear and sunny as well with each day getting a little bit warmer. 

Our next Pacific storm approaches Tuesday afternoon and evening, and there is a lot of disagreement how that will start out. 

I will do another update on Monday, but at this time forecasts are leaning towards a snowy start with an eventual transition to above freezing temperatures and rain by Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.


For current weather conditions in Shoreline visit www.shorelineweather.com


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Snow clouds leading in the cold front

Friday, January 12, 2024

Snow clouds by Gordon Snyder

Tonight I drove from Kirkland to Shoreline just a short time after Gordon Snyder took this photo from Horizon View in Lake Forest Park.

As I left Kirkland, tiny pellets of ice started to come down - graupel - bouncing off the pavement and rolling around. 10 blocks later, it was a fine mist of rain. A few blocks after that it appeared to be a rain-snow mix.

Another mile and just into Kenmore, there was no precipitation and the pavement was dry. In central Kenmore it started up again and it kept changing as we drove into Lake Forest Park and on to Shoreline.

Every ten blocks it would change.

The sky was beautiful - slightly darker than Gordon's photo. A huge black cloud that looked like something from a horror movie. Then blue sky. Then a cloud like the one in the middle but with cut-outs as if some giant was dipping spoonfuls of cloud for a snack.

The whole sky was like that .At one point there was a slightly wispy cloud skittering along below the thick ponderous clouds above it.

It's one thing to sit in the house and listen to my trees throwing things at my roof but it's a real treat to be outside and actually watching the weather that Carl Dinse talks about in his reports.

A few hours later my deck was white - but nothing measurable. Carl says the arctic front is officially here and there's more to come.
 
--Diane Hettrick


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NEMCo partners with Police Departments to institute Winter Weather Wellness Checks

Thursday, January 11, 2024

By Kevin Lowery
NEMCo Emergency Manager

The Northshore Emergency Management Coalition (NEMCo) is excited to announce that it is partnering with the Cities of Kenmore and Lake Forest Park, as well as their respective Police Departments, to institute a new Winter Weather Wellness Check program. 

Running from now until March 1, 2024 this program is designed to proactively engage with community members who feel especially at-risk or otherwise in need during the cold winter months.

Modelled after the existing vacant house check program, interested persons will be able to register with the appropriate city, via the below weblinks, to receive wellness check phone calls and/or in-person visits, depending on anticipated weather conditions. 

For anyone without access to the internet, signup forms will be available at each City Hall. While the in-person visits will mostly be conducted by police officers, trained NEMCo volunteers will be tasked with making phone calls checking on the health and wellbeing of registered community members.

Targeted toward at-risk and vulnerable populations within our community, this program is designed to provide any registered community member assistance in the event of extreme cold weather, unexpected cold snaps, significant power outages, or other weather-related emergencies. 

While this program is not intended to be a guarantee of aid from the City or Police Department, it will hopefully allow us to anticipate weather-related issues and connect community members with the appropriate resources before situations become potentially life threatening.

Anyone interested in this program is encouraged to visit the below webpages, as well as NEMCo’s website for further information on how to sign up. 


Additionally, we are asking that you please share this information with any family members or neighbors who you think may benefit from this program.


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WeatherWatcher: Snow forecast still uncertain but cold is certain

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

 

Dusting of snow in Lake Forest Park, November 30, 2014
Photo by Carl Dinse

A dusting of snow might be all we see in the next few days, but a looming storm this weekend could change that story come Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Cold air is starting to slowly make its way into our region bringing temperatures down to the marginal range of freezing. Showers are still around and are expected to continue through Friday. For Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, we could see some convergence zone activity develop and bring us some rain, snow, or a mixture of both. If we see a heavier shower, it could bring us an accumulation of snow to the tune of a trace to an inch or two.

Beyond Wednesday evening, well things are still quite uncertain at that point. There has not been a lot of forecast model agreement on what comes next. I was hoping by this evening we would have a better idea, but all that is certain is that we are going to get an arctic air mass over the region. Friday through Sunday daytime temperatures will remain in the upper 20's to 30's, depending on how far west the cold air travels.

A series of storms is expected to move ashore beginning Friday, but how far south is the question. Most models now indicate that this will be a big snow event for Portland, leaving the greater Seattle area cold and dry. One model, the American GFS - this is the one I have a hard time trusting - has the storm track further north putting the Puget Sound in a heavy blanket of snow.

Bottom line: I will provide updated forecasts as needed, but now would be a good time to make sure everything is winterized and ready for a freeze and snowfall. There is potential but not a significant chance yet of heavier snowstorms (beyond just a few scattered snow showers) to move in on Friday through Sunday. 

Still way too early and uncertain to talk about any accumulations for the weekend. For the remainder of the week, we could see nothing or up to a couple of inches here and there. Daytime temperatures may be warm enough though to melt off accumulations in the afternoon hours, but anything left over will freeze overnight.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com




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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory issued Monday night into Tuesday Morning

Monday, January 8, 2024

 
Graphic by National Weather Service in Seattle

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory for the greater Seattle area including the cities of Lake Forest Park and Shoreline. The wind advisory is in effect starting Monday night from 10pm until Tuesday night at 10pm. 

At the time of this writing models suggest the strongest winds to be just before 4am Tuesday morning but all agree that it will be windy most of the day. Wind gusts could go as high as 45 to 50mph.

From the National Weather Service:
  • What: Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. 
  • Where: Everett and Vicinity, Tacoma Area, Bellevue and Vicinity and Seattle and Vicinity.
  • When: From 10pm Monday evening to 10pm Tuesday. 
  • Impacts: Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
 

For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


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WeatherWatcher: Active weather ahead with rain, wind, then uncertainty

 

Blustery day at Richmond Beach
Photo by Carl Dinse

We have a week of active weather in the forecast. A rainstorm moves in late Monday morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening. A windstorm follows that rain Monday evening into Tuesday. A half inch to one inch of rain is expected with the Monday night storm.

Winds Monday night and Tuesday through the afternoon are expected to be south to southwest 15-30 mph, with gusts up to 45mph especially after midnight Monday night. Winds are expected to taper off after midnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. These winds could cause some scattered power outages throughout the area.

Interesting note, the Monday/Tuesday storm has prompted the National Weather Service in Seattle to issue their first blizzard warning for the Cascade and Olympic Mountains in 12 years. 

Rain continues through Wednesday into Thursday morning. Thursday morning and beyond is when things get very uncertain. Many of the forecast models believe we will transition into an arctic outbreak, except for the American GFS model. 

I personally have had a hard time trusting the American model. For the past two years, it has not been very good at predicting more than a couple hours into the future, let alone a few days. 

That said, even on the other forecast models that are run with slightly different starting variables, have a significant disagreement on placement of where the arctic outbreak will occur over the greater Northwest (including Montana). 

Generally, several forecasts are calling for an arctic lobe or "polar vortex" to reach down the west coast and bring us very cold temperatures with snow from Thursday/Friday well through next weekend. Other models have that arctic lobe staying generally east of the Rocky Mountain range, leaving us with our usual maritime climate and lowland rain.

It is still too early to know for sure what might happen after Thursday, but cold and snow-like weather is not ruled out yet. I will do another update Tuesday night, when hopefully we will have better forecast model agreement.


For current weather conditions visit: www.shorelineweather.com

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Our changing sky

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Horizon View Park, looking southwest

Story and photos by Gordon Snyder

Keep an eye on the sky when going for a walk in our neighborhood this time of year.

Beautiful and partly sunny to the SouthWest in the first photo.

Horizon View Park looking northeast

But, looking just beyond the sunbeams to the NorthEast gloomy grey…

About 5 minute later, “All Hail Broke Loose” as that dark grey cloud took charge.


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Bad weather always looks better when you’re outside

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Rainy Lake Washington
Photo by Gordon Snyder
By Gordon Snyder

During today’s grey rainy afternoon, I headed to see the storms blowing over Lake Washington.

Typical rain and clouds kept changing the view. I stayed longer to gather in the sights when I heard the screeching of a couple of eagles.

Almost eagles
Photo by Gordon Snyder

Couple of eagles was literally correct. 

They were flying and hollering until they landed in the shoreline trees and proceeded with their mating ritual. 

I could not get a photo because they were in that distant clump of trees. 

But while I was waiting for them to maybe fly by… a subtle sunset showed up.


After deciding it was getting too dark to photo them, while leaving I saw this Rainbow to the east.

Bad weather always looks better when you’re outside. 


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Weather that can't make up its mind

Photo by Lee Lageschulte

No wonder it's so hard to predict the weather here. The photo shows all weather in a day (not a technical term) - but what isn't there?



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WeatherWatcher: Winter Outlook

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

 

Snow in Lake Forest Park, February 13, 2021
Photo by Carl Dinse

I've been asked already when I expect to see our first snows this winter. It's very hard to say, but I will point out what I've been seeing with some consistency. There are a couple of sites that forecast longer range, both have been somewhat consistent with an indication of more winter type variety weather (Yes, the snow word) in the second half of December.

It’s important to remember that any of these forecasts going out beyond even a few days really start getting into the weeds of uncertainties. That is to say these forecasts start having a much higher percentage of becoming an inaccurate forecast.

Beyond a forecast, here’s my current ideas on how winter will play out for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

We have two main factors I generally consider. There are many more, but I like to watch the two most measured and somewhat biggest impact cycles that occur in our weather patterns. 

  • The primary one that everyone talks about is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle is typically annual or seasonal, switching during the spring and summer months to either El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions.
  • The second significant influence on our weather trends, particularly in the winter season, is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This cycle is not seasonal, or annual, but functions more on a 20-to-40-year cycle, flipping between a warm phase, and a cold phase.

So, this winter, we are in a strong El Niño, but we also have a moderate to strong cold phase PDO. This tells me that this winter isn't as likely to be the widely forecasted drier and warmer than normal winter pattern.

What does this mean for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park?

Chances of snow events will likely increase middle through late December, and I think after December our next big chances will likely be in the middle January and/or into February time frame. It could easily become another 2019 winter, where we waited until February to get all our snow. 

Our chances of a snow event for the entire winter season are slightly lower than normal, but can still happen, and can still be capable of being a large storm.

In general, I think we'll see dry stretches like the one we just finished, with stormy periods in between and heavier than normal precipitation during the active periods. We'll see if the heavier precipitation equals out the average at the end of the season or if we do end up drier, or wetter than normal.

El Niño winters with a cold phase PDO not unlike this winter that are noteworthy from Sea-Tac (unless noted):
  • 1951-52: 10 inches, in December and January
  • 1953-54: 23.3 inches, January, and March
  • 1965-66: 22 inches, December, January, and March
  • 1968-69: 67 inches, December, and January
  • 2018-19: Shoreline: 20.7 inches, February, and March (snow measured in Shoreline)

There are a lot of other El Niño winters with a cold PDO phase that produced decent snow events, so in my opinion, backed up by the data I have from Sea-Tac, it is probably more likely than not that we'll see at least one or two snow events this winter season. 

They tend to show up late December, January, and February on average for this kind of set up. Other similar years have had smaller snow events, but still, multiple snow events occurred.

Seattle's record for most snow in one winter was 1968-1969 and it was an El Niño winter, with a cold phase PDO. The only other recorded winter that comes close was 1949-1950 at 64 inches of snow. Most fell in a January blizzard (Seattle’s only officially recorded blizzard). The 1949-50 winter, however, was a La Niña winter, but also with a cold phase PDO. 


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com

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Not just the rivers are rising

Echo Lake Park looking south. Photo by Johanna Polit
If you live on Echo Lake, in a house or ground level apartment / condo, you might want to check your doorstep to make sure the water is not at your door.

Echo Lake Park beach, looking north
Photo by Johanna Polit

The water in the lake is just below the level of the curb and more rain is coming.

--Diane Hettrick



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Minor flooding at Edmonds ferry terminal

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Photo courtesy WSDOT

Heavy rain is causing some minor flooding at our
#Edmonds terminal. Please use extra caution while travelling through the area. Stay alert and safe around crews as they address the situation.


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Small landslide blocks Burke Gilman Trail in Lake City

Photo courtesy Seattle Parks

Seattle Parks is responding to a landslide on the Burke-Gilman Trail at 11700 Riviera Place NE in the Lake City neighborhood. 

Photo courtesy Seattle Parks

Crews were on site are assessing the damage. The BGT is blocked and closed at this location. Crews set up a detour routes for trail users.


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WeatherWatcher: Wind Advisory in effect overnight; Weekly forecast

Friday, December 1, 2023

National Weather Service weather pattern timeline
The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a wind advisory in effect beginning Friday night, December 1, 2023 at 11pm until Saturday morning at 6am. 

Winds are expected to pick up around or after midnight Friday night. The peak of the winds is expected between around 3 to 5am. The wind advisory is in effect for the greater Seattle and Puget Sound area, including the cities of Shoreline and Lake Forest Park.

From the National Weather Service:
  • What: South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
  • Where: Southwest Interior, Everett and Vicinity, Tacoma area, Admiralty Inlet area, Hood Canal area, Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, East Puget Sound Lowlands, Bellevue and Vicinity, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity.
  • When: From 11pm Friday evening to 6am Saturday.
  • Impacts: Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Forecast: We have begun the transition into an active weather pattern that is very typical for the late November and early December time of year here. The jet stream is pointed right at the Pacific Northwest bringing the storm train with it.

For the weekend, we have a series of colder storms moving through, bringing several rounds of heavy rain and wind to the lowland areas. Mountains are expected to be picking up a lot of snow from this first series of storms. Windstorm overnight into Saturday morning. Then another windstorm is expected Sunday afternoon or possibly later into Monday.

Next week the fun continues with a warmer series of storms and a lot of rain. Remember how I mentioned above the mountains would be getting a lot of snow this weekend? The warmer weather next week is expected to bring rain to the lowlands and the mountains. Several inches of rain could fall in the Shoreline area, and many more inches of rain in the Cascade Mountains.

River flooding is expected next week. Small streams and creeks could start to flood and cause localized urban flooding as well. The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for the most part to last all the way through at least next Thursday with temperatures in the mid 40's to low 50's.

Further out in the forecast shows more storms are likely to move through the region. As the week progresses, I suspect we might see more windstorms show up in the forecast as well.


For current weather conditions visit www.shorelineweather.com


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Tier 2 Severe Weather Protocols through Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Monday, November 27, 2023


King County Regional Homelessness Authority

The forecast has shifted, with several more days of overnight freezing temperatures. We are extending the activation of our Tier 2 Severe Weather Protocols through Wednesday, November 29. 

A Tier 2 activation means the KCRHA, in partnership with local service providers, is working to:
  • Open temporary emergency shelters (also known as severe weather shelters), seek expansions to existing emergency shelter programs including 24/7 shelters and night-by-night shelters
  • Update communications materials including but not limited to KCRHA’s Severe Weather webpage, and flyers, to include up-to-date information
Find resources and learn more on our Severe Weather Page


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Thanksgiving wind

Friday, November 24, 2023

Thanksgiving morning in Edmonds
Photo by Lee Lageschulte

In contrast to the years when windstorms knocked out the power, leaving half-cooked turkeys in the oven and holiday craft fairs using lanterns, this Thanksgiving was beautiful weather.

There was enough wind in the morning to create small waves and crash against bulkheads, but the low tide didn't cooperate to create drama.

And those of us who don't see morning missed the whole thing.

--Diane Hettrick


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Fog In the Garden

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Photo by Victoria Gilleland

 The magic of morning fog in the garden.

--Victoria Gilleland


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Ethereal fog

Friday, November 17, 2023

Photo by Toby Tobler

Fog was lovely and ethereal on Thursday as it settled in around Log Boom Park Thursday morning, November 16, 2023.


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