WeatherWatcher: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status in May

Carl's Shoreline Weather Station

On May 5, 2011 the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released an update to their ENSO outlook. It appears that conditions are expected to change from what was a very strong La Nina to an ENSO-neutral state. 

However the effects this strong La Nina had on the atmosphere will continue to resonate into June and possibly July. La Nina is currently still active, but weakening. After July we should be returned to a fully neutral ENSO; however it is not yet certain what form it will take in the Fall.

What does this means for us?

We will continue to have a much wetter and colder than normal spring, and this may last well into our summer. We might not get a solid week of sunny warm weather until mid to late July. I don’t think we will have any scorchers this summer either, generally we will probably stick with the 70’s, with a few days into the warmer 80’s and maybe a low 90 here and there. 

August will probably seem like a normal August, without the hot weather near the beginning of August that we often get. With added moisture effects remaining from the weakening La Nina we might get an occasional thunderstorm or lightning show.

See previous article, explaining the el Niño, la Niña, weather patterns.

The National Weather Service posts updates every one or two months.  I'll keep you updated.

My judgment on our local weather is based on my past experience studying the effects of ENSO locally and of studying historical weather events that occurred here and in the greater Seattle area since record keeping begin, coordinating with the known past of the ENSO status each year.